Post by greeme on Nov 13, 2014 12:57:10 GMT -5
50. Yu Darvish SP
Age: 25
Ratings: B/B/G/A/B
Uncamped (i think he actually got a tia and a tib but nothing is listed)
I don't really value pitchers very highly. There has been a ton of pitcher inflation mostly due to the trade frenzy a few years ago. Tons of guys have B/B hrs/walks with G hits so that devalues them. I don't really like guys that just have B hits either. The way I see pitchers value is as follows:
1. Relievers don't pitch enough to have value.
2. Starters with all Gs can be very good if they get their numbers up to 8s and they can hold those [HASH]s. It is very hard to know who will be able to pull that off so they have little value until they do.
3. Starters with brill hrs or walks. This is what the top pitchers in the last draft look like. They usually top out as relievers on a good team and relievers have no value so they have no value.
4. Starters with brill hrs and walks and Gs for the rest. Some guys with those ratings pitch well but some don't. I'm not really sure why. Does doubles rating matter? Strikeout rating? Number of pitcher? Groundball %? Nobody really seems to know. And it seems easy just to wait and see which ones pan out and to trade for them cheap at 30.
5. Starters with B hits and Gs for the rest. Same things; some guys pitch well (harden etc) but plenty don't (bullington etc). Being risk averse I don't value them that high.
6. Pitchers that have Brill hits and Brill walks or hrs and Gs for the rest seem to be a safe bet. Since there are not that many pitchers like that I value them relatively highly. Obviously pitcher that have Brill hits/walks/hrs and gs are very rare and very valuable.
So why is Darvish this high considering his talents? Only because his ratings will be maxed assuming he makes his stip. If he can hold onto those ratings then he will be very good. Of course there is no guarantee that he can. Plenty of G pitchers can't hold a 7 much less an 8, so we will see. And if his walks drop to a 5 that could kill his value. Fun stip.
49. Josh Beckett SP
Age: 31
Ratings: B/B/G/B/B
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Consistency
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHB, Hits LHB, HRs RHB, HRs LHB, Walks LHB
Stud pitcher. The negatives of course are his age and his ask. Stud pitchers with minimal loyalty can easily set you back 15+ mil.
48. Esteban Ozuna RF
Age: 30
Ratings: G/F/P/B/B/G
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHP, Hits RHP, HRs LHP, HRs RHP
He hit .300 with 20 hrs last year and he seems to love Seattle. He is hitting .350 this year with 7 hrs in under 100 at bats. That kind of production out of SS is rare. On the other hand his D is nothing special and his age is not in his favor.
47. Alex Gordon LF
Age: 28
Ratings: G/B/F/B/G/B
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHB
Great player. 12 hrs, brill 2bs, good of with a very good arm. His average seems to have suffered since he got to Atl though.
46. Matt Kemp CF
Age: 27
Ratings: G/G/A/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Stealing, speed
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHP, Hits RHP, HR LHP, HR RHP
He looks great but doesn't play up to his ratings. Last year was his best year and he had a .795 ops. He can steal bases and B/B hrs/walks so he could easily have a breakout year. Time will tell.
45. Corey Hart C
Age: 30
Ratings: G/G/F/B/G/A
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase B (TIB): stealing, defensive range
Talent Increase C (TIA): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHP, Hits LHP, HRs RHP, HRs LHP, Walks RHP
His state obviously received a boost from playing in coors but not a lot of players have ever gotten 40/40.
44. Jake Mcgee
Age: 30
Ratings: B/G/G/B/B
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Consistency
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHB, Hits RHB, Walks LHB, Walks RHB
He pitched well last year, by far his best year, but has had a rough start this year. His ratings are amazing but his numbers are not high for his ratings. Brills at 8 G at 6 isn't great and he has already used 4 iris.
43. Francisco Rodriguez SP
Age: 30
Ratings: B/G/B/G/B
PD Reversal (PD): Duration
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter duration
Individual Rating Increase: HITs LHB, HITs RHB, HRs RHB, BBs LHB, BBs RHB
He is a great pitcher historically. The 8s on Brills are not ideal but history is on the side of his continued success.
42. Kason Gabbard SP
Age: 30
Ratings: B/G/B/B/G
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase C (TIC): Consistency
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHB, Hits LHB HRs RHB, Walks RHB, Walks LHB
Such awesome ratings. Now that he is out of coors he will start to put up cy numbers. He has pitched 4 straight complete games. Still he is 30 and that hurts his value.
41. Jonathan Papelbon
Age: 31
Ratings: B/G/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: HR RHB, HIts RHB, Hits LHB
Love the 10 hits. Only thing that really holds him back on this list is his age. It is nice that he still has 2 iris left. I would probably iri his hrs right away. 10 in 200 abs is a ton.
40. Jake Peavy SP
Age: 30
Ratings: B/A/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Homers
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Injury Reversal: Walks
Individual Rating Increase: HRs RHB, HRs LHB
Very similar to Papelbon. Gets the nod because he is a year younger and when players only have a few years left each one is significant. Peavy proves that doubles don't mean that much. He has been extremely successful with 4s. Of course it could be argued that he would have been even better if he had a better 2b rating.
39. Ricky Nolasco SP
Age: 29
Ratings: B/A/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: HITs RHB, BBs RHB, HRs RHB, HRs LHB
Younger than Peavy and with better duration. His numbers are also slightly better.
38. Hanley Ramirez SS
Age: 28
Ratings: G/B/A/B/G/G
PD Reversal (PD) - Hits, Strikeouts
Talent Increase A (TIA): Homeruns
Talent Increase B (TIB): Stealing, Fielding %
Individual Rating Increase: HRs RHP, HRs LHP Hits RHP, Walks LHP, Walks RHP
One of the best players currently. Not so easy to figure out his value. Great defender, speedy, great hitter. Really does it all.
37. Jason Kubel LF
Age: 29
Ratings: G/G/F/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): HRs
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHP, Hits RHP, HRs LHP, HRs RHP
Really great player. The G hits belies the fact that his hits are at 8. Brill hrs with 10s and brill walks are really nice. Add that to the fact that loyal guys are easy to resign and I think he has a ton of value.
36. Joey Votto 1B
Age: 28
Ratings: B/B/F/G/G/G
PD Reversal - Doubles
Talent Increase A (TIA): Strikeouts
Votto is a consistent stud, never hitting under .300. Almost always top 10 in avg, 2bs and obp. A great defensive firstbaseman also.
35. Robinson Cano 2B
Age: 29
Ratings: B/B/P/G/A/B
PD Reversal/PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Individual Rating: 2Bs RHP
His position adds to his value. His brill hits are somewhat tempered by the hits only being 8s but he still has his iris to bump his hits up . Doesn't quite have Votto's production but still very good and, as I mentioned, he plays 2nd base.
34. Drew Meyer
Age: 30
Ratings: B/A/P/B/A/B
PD Reversal/PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): HRs
Not a ton of guys out there with the B/B hits/hrs. Not only does he have the ratings but he puts up the stats .315 last year with 30+ hrs.
33. Hunter Morris C
Age: 23
Ratings: G/B/F/B/A/A
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
B/B 2bs/hrs is really good for a catcher.
32. Travis D'arnoud C
Age: 23
Ratings: G/B/F/B/A/A
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Very similar to Morris but slightly farther along numberwise.
31. Carlos Correa SS
Age: 17
Ratings: G/B/A/B/G/G
uncamped
Stud. Will play ss well with some st improvement or tibs.
30. Jin-Young Kim SP
Age: 19
Ratings: G/G/G/G/G
Uncamped
Hmmm. Maybe the toughest guy to value because his stip can make him great or just good. He has a better than 50% chance of having brill hits, brill hrs or walks and brill 2bs or ks. So let's say he ends up B/G/G/B/B. That should be enough to get him mid 20s but he stays here because of the risk factor.
29. Matthew Roten LF
Age: 22
Ratings: B/A/A/G/G/G
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase B (TIB): Stealing
Brill hits. Good steals. Big time Basestealer.
28. Byron Buxton CF
Age: 18
Ratings: B/A/G/G/G/A
Uncamped.
Stud. Only has one B but if you are going to only have one then hits is the way to go. Elite basestealer and centerfielder.
27. Patrick Corbin SP
Age: 22
Ratings: B/G/G/B/G
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Love the talents. It will take a few years for the numbers to go up but he will be a stud. One red flag – his hrs are G and his groundball % is only 33. That could be a problem though probably not.
26. Stephan Strasburg SP
Age: 23
Ratings: B/G/G/B/B
Uncamped.
See Corbin but no red flag.
Age: 25
Ratings: B/B/G/A/B
Uncamped (i think he actually got a tia and a tib but nothing is listed)
I don't really value pitchers very highly. There has been a ton of pitcher inflation mostly due to the trade frenzy a few years ago. Tons of guys have B/B hrs/walks with G hits so that devalues them. I don't really like guys that just have B hits either. The way I see pitchers value is as follows:
1. Relievers don't pitch enough to have value.
2. Starters with all Gs can be very good if they get their numbers up to 8s and they can hold those [HASH]s. It is very hard to know who will be able to pull that off so they have little value until they do.
3. Starters with brill hrs or walks. This is what the top pitchers in the last draft look like. They usually top out as relievers on a good team and relievers have no value so they have no value.
4. Starters with brill hrs and walks and Gs for the rest. Some guys with those ratings pitch well but some don't. I'm not really sure why. Does doubles rating matter? Strikeout rating? Number of pitcher? Groundball %? Nobody really seems to know. And it seems easy just to wait and see which ones pan out and to trade for them cheap at 30.
5. Starters with B hits and Gs for the rest. Same things; some guys pitch well (harden etc) but plenty don't (bullington etc). Being risk averse I don't value them that high.
6. Pitchers that have Brill hits and Brill walks or hrs and Gs for the rest seem to be a safe bet. Since there are not that many pitchers like that I value them relatively highly. Obviously pitcher that have Brill hits/walks/hrs and gs are very rare and very valuable.
So why is Darvish this high considering his talents? Only because his ratings will be maxed assuming he makes his stip. If he can hold onto those ratings then he will be very good. Of course there is no guarantee that he can. Plenty of G pitchers can't hold a 7 much less an 8, so we will see. And if his walks drop to a 5 that could kill his value. Fun stip.
49. Josh Beckett SP
Age: 31
Ratings: B/B/G/B/B
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Consistency
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHB, Hits LHB, HRs RHB, HRs LHB, Walks LHB
Stud pitcher. The negatives of course are his age and his ask. Stud pitchers with minimal loyalty can easily set you back 15+ mil.
48. Esteban Ozuna RF
Age: 30
Ratings: G/F/P/B/B/G
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHP, Hits RHP, HRs LHP, HRs RHP
He hit .300 with 20 hrs last year and he seems to love Seattle. He is hitting .350 this year with 7 hrs in under 100 at bats. That kind of production out of SS is rare. On the other hand his D is nothing special and his age is not in his favor.
47. Alex Gordon LF
Age: 28
Ratings: G/B/F/B/G/B
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHB
Great player. 12 hrs, brill 2bs, good of with a very good arm. His average seems to have suffered since he got to Atl though.
46. Matt Kemp CF
Age: 27
Ratings: G/G/A/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Stealing, speed
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHP, Hits RHP, HR LHP, HR RHP
He looks great but doesn't play up to his ratings. Last year was his best year and he had a .795 ops. He can steal bases and B/B hrs/walks so he could easily have a breakout year. Time will tell.
45. Corey Hart C
Age: 30
Ratings: G/G/F/B/G/A
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase B (TIB): stealing, defensive range
Talent Increase C (TIA): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHP, Hits LHP, HRs RHP, HRs LHP, Walks RHP
His state obviously received a boost from playing in coors but not a lot of players have ever gotten 40/40.
44. Jake Mcgee
Age: 30
Ratings: B/G/G/B/B
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Consistency
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHB, Hits RHB, Walks LHB, Walks RHB
He pitched well last year, by far his best year, but has had a rough start this year. His ratings are amazing but his numbers are not high for his ratings. Brills at 8 G at 6 isn't great and he has already used 4 iris.
43. Francisco Rodriguez SP
Age: 30
Ratings: B/G/B/G/B
PD Reversal (PD): Duration
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter duration
Individual Rating Increase: HITs LHB, HITs RHB, HRs RHB, BBs LHB, BBs RHB
He is a great pitcher historically. The 8s on Brills are not ideal but history is on the side of his continued success.
42. Kason Gabbard SP
Age: 30
Ratings: B/G/B/B/G
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase C (TIC): Consistency
Individual Rating Increase: Hits RHB, Hits LHB HRs RHB, Walks RHB, Walks LHB
Such awesome ratings. Now that he is out of coors he will start to put up cy numbers. He has pitched 4 straight complete games. Still he is 30 and that hurts his value.
41. Jonathan Papelbon
Age: 31
Ratings: B/G/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Talent Increase B (TIB): Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: HR RHB, HIts RHB, Hits LHB
Love the 10 hits. Only thing that really holds him back on this list is his age. It is nice that he still has 2 iris left. I would probably iri his hrs right away. 10 in 200 abs is a ton.
40. Jake Peavy SP
Age: 30
Ratings: B/A/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Homers
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Injury Reversal: Walks
Individual Rating Increase: HRs RHB, HRs LHB
Very similar to Papelbon. Gets the nod because he is a year younger and when players only have a few years left each one is significant. Peavy proves that doubles don't mean that much. He has been extremely successful with 4s. Of course it could be argued that he would have been even better if he had a better 2b rating.
39. Ricky Nolasco SP
Age: 29
Ratings: B/A/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase B (TIB): Starter Duration
Talent Increase C (TIC): Clutch
Individual Rating Increase: HITs RHB, BBs RHB, HRs RHB, HRs LHB
Younger than Peavy and with better duration. His numbers are also slightly better.
38. Hanley Ramirez SS
Age: 28
Ratings: G/B/A/B/G/G
PD Reversal (PD) - Hits, Strikeouts
Talent Increase A (TIA): Homeruns
Talent Increase B (TIB): Stealing, Fielding %
Individual Rating Increase: HRs RHP, HRs LHP Hits RHP, Walks LHP, Walks RHP
One of the best players currently. Not so easy to figure out his value. Great defender, speedy, great hitter. Really does it all.
37. Jason Kubel LF
Age: 29
Ratings: G/G/F/B/B/B
Talent Increase A (TIA): HRs
Individual Rating Increase: Hits LHP, Hits RHP, HRs LHP, HRs RHP
Really great player. The G hits belies the fact that his hits are at 8. Brill hrs with 10s and brill walks are really nice. Add that to the fact that loyal guys are easy to resign and I think he has a ton of value.
36. Joey Votto 1B
Age: 28
Ratings: B/B/F/G/G/G
PD Reversal - Doubles
Talent Increase A (TIA): Strikeouts
Votto is a consistent stud, never hitting under .300. Almost always top 10 in avg, 2bs and obp. A great defensive firstbaseman also.
35. Robinson Cano 2B
Age: 29
Ratings: B/B/P/G/A/B
PD Reversal/PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Walks
Individual Rating: 2Bs RHP
His position adds to his value. His brill hits are somewhat tempered by the hits only being 8s but he still has his iris to bump his hits up . Doesn't quite have Votto's production but still very good and, as I mentioned, he plays 2nd base.
34. Drew Meyer
Age: 30
Ratings: B/A/P/B/A/B
PD Reversal/PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): HRs
Not a ton of guys out there with the B/B hits/hrs. Not only does he have the ratings but he puts up the stats .315 last year with 30+ hrs.
33. Hunter Morris C
Age: 23
Ratings: G/B/F/B/A/A
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
B/B 2bs/hrs is really good for a catcher.
32. Travis D'arnoud C
Age: 23
Ratings: G/B/F/B/A/A
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Very similar to Morris but slightly farther along numberwise.
31. Carlos Correa SS
Age: 17
Ratings: G/B/A/B/G/G
uncamped
Stud. Will play ss well with some st improvement or tibs.
30. Jin-Young Kim SP
Age: 19
Ratings: G/G/G/G/G
Uncamped
Hmmm. Maybe the toughest guy to value because his stip can make him great or just good. He has a better than 50% chance of having brill hits, brill hrs or walks and brill 2bs or ks. So let's say he ends up B/G/G/B/B. That should be enough to get him mid 20s but he stays here because of the risk factor.
29. Matthew Roten LF
Age: 22
Ratings: B/A/A/G/G/G
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Talent Increase B (TIB): Stealing
Brill hits. Good steals. Big time Basestealer.
28. Byron Buxton CF
Age: 18
Ratings: B/A/G/G/G/A
Uncamped.
Stud. Only has one B but if you are going to only have one then hits is the way to go. Elite basestealer and centerfielder.
27. Patrick Corbin SP
Age: 22
Ratings: B/G/G/B/G
PD Reversal
Talent Increase A (TIA): Hits
Love the talents. It will take a few years for the numbers to go up but he will be a stud. One red flag – his hrs are G and his groundball % is only 33. That could be a problem though probably not.
26. Stephan Strasburg SP
Age: 23
Ratings: B/G/G/B/B
Uncamped.
See Corbin but no red flag.
