Post by Captain America on Apr 15, 2014 1:40:52 GMT -5
Since BBSBL3 began, we've gone through 11 drafts already. Some draft classes were better than others, but the #1 overall picks in each class were all expected to have amazing careers. Unfortunately, this hasn't always been the case. Let's see how all the #1 overall picks have done thus far!
First off, not all of the #1 overall picks of course have made it to the major leagues by now. Ryan Braun (2005) and Matt Harvey (2007) are currently developing in the minor leagues. Here is a brief analysis on each of these players and whether they were the right choices at the time.
LF Ryan Braun (2005)
Ratings: G/B/F/B/F/A, B/C Running/Stealing, D range
Ryan Braun has a lot of potential and could be major league ready by 2008. There's a good chance Kobe ends up franchising him unless he trades him this season. The former Astros GM Bohsandos unfortunately did not reverse Braun's hits PD when he was around and still had Braun on the Astros. It's unfortunate for Kobe, but nothing can be done with that now.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? It's too early to say because very few if any of the top players from the 2005 class have reached the major leagues, but at the time, Braun was definitely the best choice with brilliant talents in hits and home runs. We'll have to see how his career ends up in comparison to everyone else in his draft class.
SP Matt Harvey (2007)
Ratings: B/B/B/B/B, B duration
Matt Harvey became the most recent #1 overall draft pick this season and is currently on the Padres' Double A team. He should be major league by either 2009 or 2010. Harvey has all brilliant ratings and could possibly be franchised eventually if Habes is able to trade Grady Sizemore elsewhere. Time will tell whether that ends up happening. There's really nothing you can knock on Harvey. His duration could get up to an A either via spring training or a TIB. And a TIC could easily raise his clutch rating to normal. Other than that, Harvey has everything you want in a future ace.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? Right now, definitely! All brilliant ratings and a more pitching heavy draft class made Harvey a very easy decision for Habes to make. Obviously, we will have to see how everyone's careers turn out, but the sky is certainly the limit for Harvey's potential.
And now for the major leaguers. Current ratings (including whether reversals have been used or not) and career statistics were equally taken into consideration.
9. SP Justin Verlander (2004)
Current Ratings: G/G/A/G/G, B duration
PD Reversal & TIA: Both used
Career Statistics: 0-6, 6.79 ERA 53.0 IP, 34 K
Justin Verlander's BBSBL career is off to a very poor start in his rookie season this year. He's gotten lit up in all five of his starts and wasn't pitching much better out of the bullpen. The fact that his PD reversal and TIA have both been used already certainly limits his potential a bit and probably will become a middle to back end starter at best. Verlander though is not an original Diamondback. He was originally drafted by the Rays, who traded him to the A's. Darell then got Verlander in the deal that sent Eugene Delrio to Oakland. Darell has had such bad luck with PD's for so many of his players and Verlander is certainly a symbol of the Diamondbacks' bad luck over time.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? The 2004 draft class was weak generally speaking, which makes Verlander a good pick for a draft like this. Very few have really made the major leagues just yet in this class, so we need more time to determine if others could have been better picks than Verlander.
8. SP Clayton Kershaw (2006)
Current Ratings: B/B/B/G/B, B duration
PD Reversal & TIA: Used; Not Used; Franchised
Career Statistics: 1-2, 4.87 ERA, 20.1 IP, 21 K
Clayton Kershaw would have spent a lot more time in the minor leagues, but a recent PD prompted CC to call him up and franchise him immediately. In a way, it was a good move to make, although Kershaw is nowhere close to being major league ready with his ratings. There will likely be growing pains as a result. But down the road, once Kershaw finally is fully developed, he should become the future ace that CC is hoping he will be.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? Right now, yes. It's way too early to see if others in the 2006 class have better careers, being that Kershaw is almost certainly the first player from the class to reach the major leagues. Time will tell.
7. CF Matt Kemp (2003)
Current Ratings: G/G/A/G/G/A, C/A Running/Stealing, D range
PD Reversal & TIA Used: Not Used; Used
Career Statistics: .274/.312/.391, 68 R, 134 H, 31 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 70 RBI, 27 BB, 33 SB
Matt Kemp was originally selected by the Reds as the first overall pick in the 2003 draft. Stutter probably should have kept him, but chose to trade him to the Cubs for Torii Hunter. Play then moved Kemp to the Giants in exchange for Odell Gess. Kemp made his major league debut midway through the 2006 season and was a nice addition to the Giants' lineup. Kemp has good potential generally speaking, but playing his home games in a pitcher's park probably won't help him reach his full potential in statistics. Kemp has already been TIA'd, TIB'd twice, TIC'd and IRI'd four times. So it's not like his number ratings will definitely improve in the future. Still, Kemp is a solid player and while it's sorta weird to see him with the Giants, he's someone Spencer can build his lineup around.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? The 2003 draft class was pretty weak in general. Kemp was the best player in the original draft class, so at the time, he was the best choice. The only notable major leaguers from the 1st round of this class are Jonathan Papelbon of the Mariners (12th overall) and Ryan Wagner of the Indians (25th overall). Papelbon is coming off a 21-win season in 2006 and part of the Mariners' great young rotation. Wagner had a 42-save season in 2004 as the Reds' closer.
But the two big steals of this draft were in the 2nd round. One was Chris Dickerson, who was taken by the Mariners 42nd overall and was one of the top prospects entering the 2007 season. Dickerson is now with the Expos and was with the Rays before that. The other steal was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who went 49th overall to the Blue Jays and got some amazing PD's and has been brilliant in hits ever since. He was then traded to the Expos for Chase Utley. Saltalamacchia should be major league ready in 2008.
Stutter still made a good choice in Kemp, but simply didn't get as lucky as Nanz and Game did with Dickerson and Saltalamacchia, respectively.
6. SP Cliff Lee (2000)
Current Ratings: G/G/G/G/G, C duration
PD Reversal & TIA: Both Not Used
Career Statistics: 71-55, 4.39 ERA, 1,129.2 IP, 700 K
Cliff Lee, who had spent his entire career with the Indians before a recent trade to the A's simply has never lived up to his expectations since being drafted first overall in 2000. I don't think Lee was brilliant in any categories back then, but I might be wrong. Sure, he was never camped, but his ratings all got to 7's by default, so there may not have been as much of a need to spend on IRI's, among other things.
Anyway, Lee was never an ace for the Indians and was usually their 4th or 5th SP, except for 2005 when he spent the entire season in the bullpen. Most of his career numbers are decent, but the fact that his career best ERA is 3.54, which happened just a season ago is not that good at all for a former #1 overall pick. As a result, it would fair to consider Lee's career a disappointment thus far.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? At the time, Lee looked like a solid pick, with his nice ratings and the fact that he was close to being major league ready. But looking back, DRowe did not end up making the best choice here at all. Quite a few players from the 2000 draft class have had much better careers.
Hanley Ramirez was selected 4th overall, is now a perennial shortstop for the Pirates and has all the potential in the world. Speaking of the Pirates, Stevie B was able to snag up Chase Utley 7th overall. Utley is now arguably the best second baseman in the game and is currently playing for the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista went 9th overall and is now one of the best third basemen in the league for the Cubs. And there's more.
Grady Sizemore was taken 12th overall by the Cardinals and is now the Padres' franchised outfielder. At 15th overall, the Mariners selected Rich Harden, who is now the team's ace and the defending AL Cy Young Award winner. The latter half of the 1st round featured two more big steals. The Phillies selected Corey Hart 23rd overall, who is now a two-time All-Star catcher for the Rockies. And then with the final pick of the 1st round, the Marlins selected Jason Kubel, who has the potential to be a superstar hitter.
And if that isn't enough, Odell Gess, Eugene Delrio and Kason Gabbard all went in the 2nd round of this draft. Boof Bonser, Leon Sabin and Joseph Priddy were among those that were taken in the 3rd round. All in all, DRowe struck out big time with selecting Cliff Lee 1st overall in the 2000 draft.
5. SS David Wright (2001)
Current Ratings: G/B/F/B/F/G, E/C Running/Stealing, D range
PD Reversal & TIA: Not Used; Used; Franchised
Career Statistics: .310/.332/.451, 218 R, 480 H, 136 2B, 27 HR, 235 RBI, 51 BB, 6 SB
Only fitting that #5 is ranked at #5. Obviously, as everyone remembers, I wanted Wright real badly in the 2001 draft, tanked hard to get him, and thanks to some technicalities and a trade, I was able to get him. Wright is now in his third big league season and while his home runs have yet to fully develop, he has already become a doubles machine and got 203 hits last season. He is among the best young shortstops in the game right now and has a very bright future ahead of him. And once those homers ratings go up to an 8 or 9, don't be surprised if Ken Griffey Jr's 64 HR single season record gets broken one day. Wright's had a nice start to his career, and more than likely, it will only get better in the future.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? At the time, Joe Mauer looked like the better pick, being that he was a catcher with brilliant hits. Obviously, that's a huge, but I was gonna draft Wright regardless. And as it turned out, Mauer would get fucked over by PD's and is now the Tigers' backup catcher.
Some other nice players have come from this draft class. Robinson Cano was drafted 3rd overall by the Mariners, spent some time there and with the Astros, and is now the Rangers' franchised second baseman. Mark Prior (4th overall) is one of the Pirates' top pitchers and has a bright future of his own. Ryan Howard (5th overall) has blossomed into a feared slugging first baseman for the Marlins. Mike Adams (11th overall) is an elite closer for the Cubs. Dan Johnson (26th overall) is a solid first baseman for the Reds. Not many other great players came from this draft, so overall, I'd say that regardless of how much of a Mets homer I really am, I made a very good choice with Wright. Howard will more than likely produce better numbers, but it's not as easy to find great production at shortstop, compared to first base.
4. 1B Joey Votto (2002)
Current Ratings: B/B/F/G/G/G, C/D Running/Stealing, B range
PD Reversal & TIA: Both Used; Franchised
Career Statistics: .330/.372/.487, 248 R, 561 H, 138 2B, 12 3B, 35 HR, 253 RBI, 112 BB, 4 SB
I am still kicking myself for losing too many games in 2001. As a result of Dave and myself both suffering tanking penalties, Nanz was awarded the #1 pick and made the right choice in selecting Votto, who I really wanted. Votto at Coors...my goodness that would've made up for the bonehead Helton trade in 96. Oh well. Nothing I can do now.
Anyway, Votto has since become the Mariners' franchise player and had an awesome 2006 season that included a .359 average, 100 runs, 222 hits, 62 doubles, 12 homers and 97 RBI. He narrowly missed winning the batting tile, but Votto has the potential to win a few batting titles in the future, so no worries there. Votto's homers and walks are both still developing, so when they fully develop, he will be that much better. Votto has the potential to go down as one of the best BBSBL hitters ever, especially because his talents will remain as is due to being a franchise player.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? Absofuckinlutely! Votto already has by far the most successful MLB career so far of anyone in the 2002 draft class. No one else is even close. If you redo the 2002 draft 10 times, Votto would go 1st overall 10 out of 10 times. Many of the top draftees here did get fucked over by PD's (Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez and Brian McCann in particular), but regardless, Nanz couldn't have made a better choice here.
3. SP C.C. Sabathia (1998)
Current Ratings: G/B/G/B/G, A duration
PD Reversal & TIA: Both Used
Career Statistics: 157-63, 2.62 ERA, 2,150.0 IP, 1,853 K
One of the most dominant southpaws in BBSBL history, C.C. Sabathia has been a great pitcher wherever he has been. Orginally drafted by the Reds, Sabathia has been with the Marlins in two different stints, and has spent time with the Cubs and Angels as well. The best part of what Ashes did with Sabathia after franchising him for a while was trade him in order to franchise Miguel Cabrera and then later reacquiring Sabathia two seasons later. Amazing job done by Ashes there!
Sabathia has had an ERA under 3.00 in every season except his rookie year, won 20+ games five times and won the 2002 NL Cy Young Award. His PD reversal has unfortunately been used already, but Sabathia is still among the top 3 most valuable left-handed pitchers in the league. And the best thing about Sabathia is that he's only 26 and should continue to be successful for many seasons to come.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? At the time, probably. But the fact that David Ross, Corey Patterson, Matt Holliday and Carlos Pena have all developed into some of the best hitters in the league, you could make a case for any of them being more valuable than Sabathia. Stutter made a very good choice at the time, but if he had chosen one of those hitters, maybe the Reds would have had more than one winning season thus far in BBSBL history.
2. 1B Albert Pujols (1999)
Current Ratings: B/B/P/G/G/B, E/D Running/Stealing, A range
PD Reversal & TIA: Not Used; Used; Franchised
Career Statistics: .325/.383/.490, 578 R, 1,231 H, 298 2B, 8 3B, 104 HR, 626 RBI, 354 BB, 7 SB
By far the best hitter among #1 picks thus far, Albert Pujols has been one of a kind. The crazy thing is he has only been hitting like he should in his career season in 2005. Still, a .404 season is remarkable and may not ever happen again. So while the consistency year in and year out hasn't been exceptional, he is still one of the best hitters in the league and Game ended up getting the better end of the Pujols for Helton trade he did with DRowe.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? In the 1999 draft, Pujols and Miguel Cabrera could have both gone #1. I probably would take Cabrera, but you couldn't fault DRowe with going for Pujols. There were a lot of great choices here, including Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Justin Morneau, Barry Zito, and Ryan Ludwick, among others. But if this draft were to happen again, Pujols and Cabrera would still go 1 and 2 in either order. Between DRowe's two #1 picks in 1999 and 2000, he certainly made a much better decision with Pujols than Cliff Lee.
1. SP Johan Santana (1997)
Current Ratings: B/G/B/B/G, A duration
PD Reversal & TIA: Not Used; Used; Franchised
Career Statistics: 208-72, 2.35 ERA, 2,760.2 IP, 1,934 K
This shouldn't be too surprising. Johan Santana is one of the two best pitchers this league has seen. The other would be his own teammate Kerry Wood. Santana has won 20+ games in every season since 1999, which was when he won his lone NL Cy Young Award to date. He's never had an ERA above 3.00 and has had 32 complete game shutouts, which is amazing. You don't get more dominant than Santana.
Was he the right choice for the #1 overall pick? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. And yes. As good as Lance Berkman, Jack Cust and Jayson Werth have all turned out, Play made the best choice here. Santana in Wrigley Field = pure dominance. The hitters would all have put up nice numbers and Play even traded for Berkman and had him for four seasons. But Santana's value for the Cubs is higher than any of those hitters most likely would have been.
Hopefully, we'll be able to see more recent and future #1 picks have great careers as well! Until next time...
