Post by Erbes on Nov 25, 2013 18:33:05 GMT -5
Re-Drafting '97
Let me preface this by saying that I think it's incredibly hard to judge any draft in OOTP because of PDs and different development speeds of each player. I believe somebody made an effort to do something like this only a couple seasons after the draft, but I think a better time frame would be 5-6 years down the line. Most guys should be in their early 20's and in the bigs by now.
This was my first draft. You could tell. As we all know I rated pitchers way too well. Like horribly. Anyways, there are actually quite a few hitting studs in this draft. So let's take a look to see how different things would look now if we knew what we knew back then.
This was my first draft. You could tell. As we all know I rated pitchers way too well. Like horribly. Anyways, there are actually quite a few hitting studs in this draft. So let's take a look to see how different things would look now if we knew what we knew back then.
1. Chicago Cubs
'97 Pick: SP Johan Santana
'03 Pick: SP Johan Santana
Career Stats: 134-53, 2.45 ERA, 1836.1 IP, 1294 Ks, 53 CG, 23 SHO
This is still a no-brainer. Johan was accidentally omitted from the Astros franchise to begin the league and was jettisoned to the amateur draft because of it. Play tanked his ass off and earned the 1st pick, Johan, because of it. He only spent two years in the minors before tag-teaming with Kerry Wood to form what is still the best 1-2 punch at the top of any rotation in the league. I'm talking no-no-no-brainer.
2. Cincinnati Reds
'97 Pick: 1B Lance Berkman
'03 Pick: 1B Jack Cust (#19 in '97)
Career Stats: 1966 ABs, 89 HRs, 361 RBIs, .293/.360/.476
Classic case of right position, wrong player. Can't blame Stutter too much though. Cust blew up through a PD and became a stud, while Berkman 'toiled' in being just good. I am surprised Cust fell so far originally. If I remember correctly he had a solid base in homers and walks, two ratings that people put a lot of stock into. Looks like all Jah had to do was bump his hits ratings up and ta-da! Superstar. He could probably be carrying Cinci right now if only Stutter could see into the future...
3. Detroit Tigers
'97 Pick: SP Tim Hudson
'03 Pick: CF Jayson Werth (#10 in '97)
Career Stats: 265 ABs, 18 HRs, 51 RBIs, .279/.310/.566
This one is probably a little bit of a curveball for most. Kobe has me believing in the power of the Werewolf right now. Look at those slugging numbers! Jayson hits a home run every 14.7 ABs. For comparison's sake, Todd Helton hits one every 19.7 ABs. Obviously, the sample sizes are much different, but you get where I'm going; Werth has power. This is nothing against Tim Hudson, who has been respectable, but Detroit needed (and still does) a huge power source and Werth could have been that guy.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
'97 Pick: SP Carlos Zambrano
'03 Pick: 1B Lance Berkman (#2 in '97)
Career Stats: 3492 ABs, 133 HRs, 563 RBIs, .297/.394/.485
Man this pick was tough. Kind of a crossroads pick. Do you take the last remaining stud hitter or stud pitcher of the draft? Knowing what we know now, the decision is easy: the hitter. Big Puma has been a big deal since coming up in '98. All he does is hit. Where hindsight kicks in here is, if the Jays take Puma do they ever get Helton who turns into Pujols, Lampman and Laird and do they ever win a World Series? Interesting question. I think they do on the strength of their pitching and that's why they pass on Big Z here.
5. Oakland Athletics
'97 Pick: SS Rafael Furcal
'03 Pick: SP Carlos Zambrano (#4 in '97)
Career Stats: 35-31, 4.28 ERA, 704.1 IP, 402 Ks, 19 CG, 2 SHO
The stats don't tell the whole story here. Big Z just had a hugeeee PD and is finally jumping off with the Expos. Funny little tid bit here... Broph actually traded for Big Z at one point giving up Tejada, who would also make his way to Montreal. Anywho, Broph gets Z here without having to give up Tejada, and I think he would be ecstatic with the 2003 version.
6. New York Mets
'97 Pick: CF Vernon Wells
'03 Pick: RF JD Drew (#15 in '97)
Career Stats: 3539 ABs, 164 HRs, 637 RBIs, .286/.362/.494
1st round picks that don't pan out can set franchises back years. Thankfully for James he was able to dump Wells before the ugly PD monster reared its ugly head and traded him for Mike Kusiewicz, who is now a stud. So that's a win for James. Even so, Drew would have looked very nice in a Mets uni sporting brilliants in homers and walks.
7. Kansas City Royals
'97 Pick: 3B Troy Glaus
'03 Pick: SS Rafael Furcal (#5 in '97)
Career Stats: 3036 ABs, 43 HRs, 372 RBIs, 347 SBs, .307/.352/.431
Glaus wouldn't be a terrible pick right here, but how about a SS who gets on base and has a surprising amount of pop? Yes please. I think Peter would be all over this since he still has yet to find an everyday SS. Add in the fact that he has stolen at least 46 bases in each season and he's as close to a complete player at SS as possible. I think the only reason he's falling in this post-mock is power trumps most around here.
8. Chicago White Sox
'97 Pick: 3B Chone Figgins
'03 Pick: SP Jeremy Affeldt (#39 in '97)
Career Stats: 45-41, 3.33 ERA, 780 IP, 908 Ks, 8 CGs, 2 SHOs
Can't believe Affeldt was a 2nd round gem. I don't know if he was the 2nd best SP in this class, but damn those Ks are too sexy to ignore. Sure he had a great PD to get him to where he was, but that's why this is so fun! Figgins was an interesting pick here with so many positions already under his belt, but I'm not sure he's been more than just a super utility guy at this point. Waldo could have given Affeldt some grandma lovin' all day.
9. San Diego Padres
'97 Pick: SP John Curtice
'03 Pick: SP Tim Hudson (#3 in '97)
Career Stats: 80-86, 3.82 ERA, 1459.2 IP, 881 Ks, 12 CGs, 3 SHOs
Swapping a dumpy SP for a very good SP. Hudson hasn't been spectactular so far, but I think that had something to do with playing in a very tough AL East for a few seasons and having a GM that didn't really know what he was doing with him. Aaron would make sure Hudson becomes a frontline starter from the get go. Curtice is a #7/8 SP at this point. Someone you stash away for injuries. Not unuseful, but not a top 10 pick.
10. California (Anaheim) Angels
'97 Pick: CF Jayson Werth
'03 Pick: MR/SP Mike Gonzalez (#21 in '97)
Career Stats: 54-41, 3.52 ERA, 892 IP, 800 Ks, 1 CG, 1 SHO
Couldn't believe how far Gonzalez fell in the draft. Chris was smart enough to see he had starter duration and scooped him up. He's developed well and could potentially be a staff ace on a team who's looking to compete. I'm not adverse to E duration starters, but a bump up to a D would do him wonders. I think if anyone notices the SP duration, Gonzalez is a surefire top 10 pick in '97.
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
'97 Pick: SP Randy Wolf
'03 Pick: MR/SP Grant Balfour (#24 in '97)
Career Stats: 60-40, 3.01 ERA, 951.2 IP, 614 Ks, 4 CG, 2 SHOs
I don't believe Balfour started with starter's duration. I could be wrong, but I think he was taught it in ST and it worked out well. Balfour also received a nice PD bump to become the super stud he is today. So instead of getting Affeldt, Steve2 ends up with Balfour. Not a bad trade off especially considering he's probably been the most successful pitcher from this class thus far.
12. Montreal Expos
'97 Pick: CF/SP Rick Ankiel
'03 Pick: CF Endy Chavez (#29 in '97)
Career Stats: 2220 ABs, 43 HRs, 245 RBIs, 259 SBs, .290/.324/.426
This is where things could get very interesting. Lots of secondary, but very good positional players still on the board. I'm going with Chavez here because of the success he's had so far in the bigs. The amazing defense and speed doesn't hurt. Ankiel was a cool prospect. The average hitting ratings steered him towards being a pitcher. Kind of boring, but kind of cool. Chavez is better in the long run.
13. Milwaukee Brewers
'97 Pick: CL Heath Bell
'03 Pick: CL/SP Heath Bell
Career Stats: 55-63, 3.29 ERA, 1036 IP, 1052 Ks, 3 CGs, 1 SHO
Yep completely forgot about Bell. That's what happens when you play for Milwaukee. Sorry Steve! Bell definitely didn't start with SP duration so I don't feel as bad as him falling to 13. Steve probably is the only one in the league with the nurturing abilities to get him to be as great as he is now. I also feel like Bell got a PD somewhere along the line? Anyways, I forgot about him so he ends up in Milwaukee again. Sorry Heath?
14. Minnesota Twins
'97 Pick: CL Jose Valverde
'03 Pick: C Jeff Bailey (#37 in '97)
Career Stats: No big league experience
Well Bailey sure is taking his sweet time to get to the bigs. Catching is so hard to lock down in the league. Jeff is good in hits, homers, and walks. That spells awesome future for the future all-star backstop. Greeme has a real gem on his hands, but he better hurry and get him to the bigs before he regresses. Valverde is putting up really good stats, but a closer at 14? No thanks.
15. Chicago Cubs
'97 Pick: RF JD Drew
'03 Pick: SP Joel Pineiro (#25 in '97)
Career Stats: 34-34, 4.66 ERA, 645.1 IP, 369 Ks, 8 CGs, 1 SHO
No mo' Drew for Play so I say he goes with Pineiro. Joel has had a topsy turvey career so far. He's been traded multiple times, had bad PDs, great PDs, and now he's an ace in the making. Great duration and ground ball percentage ensure Pineiro stays in the game late. Could you imagine a threesome of Johan, Wood, and Pineiro right now? Wowser.
16. Philadelphia Phillies
'97 Pick: SP Matt Riley
'03 Pick: 3B Troy Glaus (#7 in '97)
Career Stats: 1868 ABs, 64 HRs, 283 RBIs, .268./.324/.444
Pretty awesome for Philly that Glaus falls this far. Really good ratings. Not awesome, good. No brilliants limits his value, but he's finally starting to grow into the ratings he does have. Definitely in the midst of his career year to this point. Riley actually has some nice ratings and stats, but you can't pass up a middle of the order bat at 16.
17. St. Louis Cardinals
'97 Pick: 2B Michael Young
'03 Pick: 2B Michael Young
Career Stats: 3073 ABs, 79 HRs, 352 RBIs, .276/.309/.417
I've been looking for a spot for Young for the past 3 or 4 picks. I think he's very good. Bosoxi hit it on the nail with this pick. You'd obviously like to see a bit of a higher OBP, but the power is pretty real. 26 homers last season and on pace for more this season is nothing to sneeze at. Mike Young is legit.
18. Toronto Blue Jays
'97 Pick: MR/SP Juan Cruz
'03 Pick: SP Aaron Myette (#22 in '97)
Career Stats: 11-22, 4.44 ERA, 296 IP, 161 Ks, 11 CGs, 1 SHO
Swapping a mediocre middle reliever/ low duration starter for Myetter is a job well done by me. Myette was looking pretty average before a nice PD and some cash helped out. Nanz turned him into a solid starter and now he's a front line kinda guy. Berkman and Myette would be a nice haul for Game/ danchevy here.
19. Baltimore Orioles
'97 Pick: 1B Jack Cust
'03 Pick: 3B Chone Figgins (#8 in '97)
Career Stats: 1830 ABs, 25 HRs, 197 RBIs, .303/.341/.418
Sorry Jah, but Cust is gone. Consolation prize: Chone Figgins. I actually still like Figgins quite a bit. The very good defense is so valuable. If he can rekindle the magic of the .382 OBP season he had he could turn into more than just a super util guy. Could be a top of the lineup mainstay.
20. Texas Rangers
'97 Pick: SP Brad Penny
'03 Pick: MR/SP Scot Shields (#23 in '97)
Career Stats: 49-66, 4.53 ERA, 867.2 IP, 365 Ks, 2 CGs, 2 SHOs
These next couple of picks are guys who have really good ratings, but haven't really lived up to them. Worth a flyer here, Shields started as a MR and was transformed into a very serviceable starter. For some reason the dude just can't pitch consistently. Surprised he's not putting up better numbers in LA this season. Let's see if he can get it together. And oh yeah Penny isn't even in the league anymore. Yikes.
21. Houston Astros
'97 Pick: MR Mike Gonzalez
'03 Pick: SS Brandon Larson (#48 in '97)
Career Stats: 1472 ABs, 40 HRs, 198 RBIs, .272/.316/.416
I love Larson's ratings for a SS. He should be hitting for solid average and power, especially in Texas, but he's struggled so far. Not sure when he got his nice PD so maybe he needs to grow into the ratings, but Dan should be IRIing him hard at this point. If you can grab that kind of potential at 21 you do it, especially with the talent pool thinning out pretty badly.
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
'97 Pick: SP Aaron Myette
'03 Pick: 3B Adam Piatt (#56 in '97)
Career Stats: 1717 ABs, 47 HRs, 251 RBIs, .251/.295/.408
Piatt has been passed around more than John Stamos' mom. With that being said, you definitely take a flyer on a middle infielder with good power and average. It really is nutty how bad he has been though. Hopefully he can turn it around for Greg. He would probably go higher in a more recent draft with the lack of offense so at 22, any LA GM would be happy.
23. Seattle Mariners
'97 Pick: MR Scot Shields
'03 Pick: SP Jason Standridge (#38 in '97)
Career Stats: No big league experience
Standridge was a dead duck for quite some time until a very nice PD and some help from Play. He's a bit older right now so he needs to make the bigs soon or regression might kick in, but at #23 he would have been a steal for Nanz. He'll slot in nicely for whichever rotation Play trades him to?
24. Cleveland Indians
'97 Pick: MR Grant Balfour
'03 Pick: C Jason Grabowski (#51 in '97)
Career Stats: 1359 ABs, 26 HRs, 166 RBIs, .288/.344/.413
Catching is just rare. Grabowski was sucky, got a great PD, and then I think he had a mildly poor PD. He's hitting really well in Minny right now, so just imagine how well he'd do in Cleveland. Have to feel he's going to improve on those stats.
25. Oakland Athletics
'97 Pick: SP Joel Pineiro
'03 Pick: CF/SP Rick Ankiel (#12 in '97)
Career Stats: 5-6, 4.71 ERA, 101.1 IP, 86 Ks, 0 CGs, 0 SHOs
Not sure Broph would ever entertain the idea of drafting someone like Ankiel, but he's the best talent on the board. He's really coming into his own now that he's starting full time and it seems like he has a higher ceiling than most thought. Let's see if those walks can stay in check.
26. Cincinnati Reds
'97 Pick: 2B Orlando Hudson
'03 Pick: 2b Orlando Hudson
Career Stats: 2403 ABs, 33 HRs, 307 RBIs, 58 SBs, .286/.323/.405
This was a solid pick at the time and still is. Hudson's numbers may be declining, but I think his ratings will help him rebound nicely. I'd be interested to see if he bounces back on a different team, maybe it's a case of supporting cast or stadium at this point? And oh by the way, Gold Glove caliber defense is always nice to have.
27. Cincinnati Reds
'97 Pick: RF Michael Restovich
'03 Pick: CL Jose Valverde (#14 in '97)
Career Stats: 29-21, 118 SVs, 2.62 ERA, 402.2 IP, 377 Ks
Valverde has definitely flown under the radar playing on some bad teams, but he's been a stud. He's never given up more hits than innings. That's great. Restovich, unfortunately, is nothing more than a bench player at this point. Sucks because he was such a stud muffin in the last BBSBL.
28. Atlanta Braves
'97 Pick: SP Aaron Cook
'03 Pick: 2B Jerry Hairston, Jr. (#67 in '97)
Career Stats: 1722 ABs, 28 HRs, 172 RBIs, 37 SBs, .293/.338/.394
I'll go with Hairston, Jr. as the last pick. Lots of position eligibility and not a bad bat. Pretty sure he had a PD to get him here, but who cares. .293 out of a super util guy is a nice bonus. Matt would have loved this guy.
There you have it. Hope I didn't miss anyone. I'm sure I did so let me have it. I'll do '98 during next season. Thanks!
