Post by Erbes on Jul 21, 2014 16:12:51 GMT -5
Off to the Races!
With little more than 2 months left in the season I wanted to take a closer look at some of the tighter races coming down the stretch. The key word in that sentence is tighter. We aren't going to be discussing whether or not the Marlins are going to be winning the NL East because, well, they already have and the rest of the NL East sucks. Without further ado let's dive in!
The Race for Chris Sale
Contestants: New York Mets, New York Yankees (2 GB)
Background:
In one corner of this contest you have the affable losers, the Yanks, and in the other the sketchy con artists, the Mets. I don't think I've ever been in a league where both the Yankees and the Mets have been this bad at the same time. Probably because: A. The Yanks were always owned by Chris C. and I'm pretty sure he gamed the system when he has them pretty hard, and B. Because of each team's financial prowess. So you're welcome BBSBL for being so bad! I'm entering my 12th year of my rebuild and adding a pitcher like Chris Sale would certainly speed things up for me. Probably take this from a 20 year rebuild to an 18 year rebuild. Whereas the Mets, after years of neglect, are in their first year of a deconstruct and reconstruct, and already have the 2nd ranked system in the league.
How it Shakes Out:
With the dealing of Nicolas, I literally have zero proven offensive players. Like zero. Mama! However, the Mets are even worse. I have no faith in danchevy in playing his best players or calling up his best players this season. Sorry, that's the rap you get when you cheat. On the bright side, the 'loser' gets Harper so I'll take that I guess lololol.
Winner: New York Mets by at least 10 games.
The Race for the AL East
Contestants: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (4 GB)
The Low Down:
The Red Sox are coming off of a 99 win, 2nd place finish last year in which they handed out massive contracts to practically every veteran over the age of 30. Nobody thought it was smart at the time, but Break. And really he's had the last laugh so far. With a payroll around $84M, some youngish players on his MLB roster, and currently a 4 game lead he's actually, wait for it... looking like he could win the AL East. But wait, not so fast! The Rays, built on the backs of overpaid veterans and pots of kreplach, are storming back. Once down double digit games, the Rays have closed it to just 4 games with 2 months to play.
Fast Forward:
Greeme has made two pretty huge moves recently: trading for Carlos Lee and Drew Henson. Both are potential game changers and should definitely put a scare into Break. Unfortunately, whatever fear that has brought to Break isn't showing up in the trades thread. He's made no significant moves to add talent and I think that's going to haunt him. Maybe he's scared stiff? It's these recent additions by Greeme that will wind up being the difference.
Winner: Tampa Bay by 2 games.
The Race for the NL Wild Card
Contestants: Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks (2 GB), Cincinnati Reds (10 GB)
The 411:
Alright maybe including the Reds here is a bit of a pipe dream. They've fallen off the pace fast and without any offensive upgrades seem to be doomed. But where there's Josh Beckett, there is hope. If anybody can push these Bad News Bears into the playoffs it's Beckett. Now let's get down to the real players: the Rockies and D'Backs. This is a huge change of pace for the D'Backs as they look to set a franchise record in wins this year and possibly make the playoffs for the first time. In the other corner, we have the Rockies who I guess would be deemed the playoff 'veterans' in this case. After some much needed help from Ashes, Shale has his team on a roll. Shale seems to be the more active of the two in the trade market, trading for pitching help (Workman) and offensive upgrades (Nicolas). Darell just needs to make a move. The biggest mistake I feel people make is not going for it. You never know when you're going to be this close to the playoffs again. There's no reason not to check in with Nanz or the Rangers or St. Louis to see if you can make that move to put your team over the top.
Back to the Future:
If Darell fails to make an upgrading move it's going to doom him. One thing Shale is, is active. He's out there scouring the market and making moves. People who stand still don't make the playoffs.
Winner: San Diego Padres by 1 game. OHHHH CURVEBALL! Aaron's roster is stacked. I have a hard time believing that this team as is (plus Kuroda now) isn't making the playoffs. There's no way he's chasing down the Giants, but being only 11 GB with 60 to go is definitely doable. As long as everyone stays healthy/ gets healthy I think the Pads will continue this run they're on right into the playoffs.
The Race for the Best Hitter in the League
Contestants: Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday
The Skinny:
I think a lot of people would call this a gimme for Cabrera, but I wanted to take a look at it a little bit closer. A lot of people will say Cabrera is more valuable because of superior ratings and age, but let's ignore those two factors right now. I want to dive into who is the best hitter regardless of any of that. I suppose we could expand the list to include Adam Dunn, Nomar Garciapparra, David Ortiz, but let's be serious; those guys aren't in the same stratosphere as Miguel and Matt. So first let's start with their current stats this year. Career numbers mean little in this scenario because I want to find out who is the best hitter this year. Miguel is at a gaudy .402/.491/.695/1.186 slash line with 25 homers, 102 RBIs, 37 2Bs, and 62 BBs. Yeah not bad. Holliday clocks in with a .352/.419/.620/1.040 slash line with 23 HRs, 82 RBIs, 25 2Bs, 43 BBs, and 31 SBs. Again, serviceable. At first glance Miggy is the clear winner. 50 points higher in BA, 80 points higher in OBP, and 75 points higher in SLG. Not really all that close.
With that being said, let's take a look at how each league's pitching factors in. Amazingly, each league is sitting on a 4.23 ERA right now. In the past, the NL would be a good half run better, but with the introduction of the DH ERAs in the NL are on the rise. But what about inside of the division, the teams Miggy and Matt face the most? The average ERA in the AL East is 4.61 compared to that of 5.38 in the NL East - about a .7 difference. Meaning that on average Holliday is facing better pitching than Miggy. Does this really make up the difference between their BAs, OBPs, etc.? Probably not, but it does at least make you think.
Lastly, let's take a look at their supporting cast. As a team the Marlins are hitting to the tune of .312/.360/.488/.848. That's disgusting and easily the best slash line of any team in the league. The Rays are at a clip of .295/.347/.446/.793 - or in other words the 2nd best slash line in the league. I was hoping there would be a bigger discrepancy between the two to show why Miggy may have more at-bats with men in scoring position and therefore more RBIs, but no dice. I will say that the Miggy hits 3rd for the Marlins whereas Holliday hits 2nd which may be the reason for a slight difference in ABs with men in scoring position (123-111).
Winner: Miguel Cabrera. Although Holliday should walk away with the AL MVP, it's pretty easy to see that Miguel is the best hitter in the league, and probably will be for the next 7-10 seasons. But I think this shows that there are at least guys out there who could give him a run every now and then. Especially with guys like Trout, Sano, and Goldschmidt on their way.
The Race for the Best Record
Contestants: Florida Marlins, San Francisco Giants (8 GB), Boston Red Sox (9 GB), Tampa Bay Devil Rays (13 GB)
The Scuttlebutt:
I included the Reds Sox and Rays because I think one of these teams is going to make a run very soon. My money is on the Rays and if that team heats up like for real it could be lights out for the Red Sox. The real competition here seems to be Marlins vs. Giants. While these two teams will probably end up facing each other in the NLCS which one will claim the best record in the league? The Marlins are lead by other world talents like the aforementioned Miguel Cabrera, super ace CC Sabathia, Nomar Garciapparra, and a host of quality bats. Meanwhile the Giants are built on pitching and are boasting 4 SPs all with ERAs under 3.00. While a lot of people tend to think it's Spencer's park that helps all of these pitchers (they all have worse road ERAs than home), the Giants actually fare better away from AT&T (40-12) than they do in it (35-18). While each team is very strong overall they both of slight weaknesses. The Marlins could probably use one more proven bullpen arm to support Bulger and Brown at the back of their bullpen. Their starters soak up a ton of innings so it's not a huge need, but if injuries strike the rotation or somebody gets knocked around early in the playoffs it's nice to have a strong bullpen to keep you in the game. As for the Giants, they need some power. They rank 17th in the league homers aka not good enough. While I understand AT&T doesn't play well for home run hitters you need someone who can change a game with one swing in the playoffs. In my opinion Florida is in a better position to shore up it's bullpen (plus maybe an outfielder?) than San Fran is to adding an impact power bat. It could be the difference.
Looking Ahead:
I think Spencer has something up his sleeve. It's not often the Giants aren't grabbing some piece at the deadline to make a push. He'll pull something out of his ass and give Ashes a run for his money. I also really think the Rays make some noise. Not sure they get all the way there, but within 5 or 6 games seems reasonable to me.
Winner: 1. Florida Marlins, 2. San Francisco Giants, 3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 4. Boston Red Sox. In the end, the Marlins are too good. They've gone 25-6 against the NL East. The Giants have gone 23-9 against the NL West. It'll probably come down to the Marlins playing in a worse division that will give them the edge.
The Race for NL Cy Young
Contestants: Mark Buehrle (SF), CC Sabathia (FLA), Josh Beckett (CIN), Johan Santana (CHC)
The Hullabaloo:
Before we dive into this crazy race, let's talk about the AL Cy Young for a second. And really how I have no idea who is going to win. The game itself puts so much stock into the win-loss record that I have to think Joe Smith, Rocky Biddle, and Jeremy Blevins are all going to lose out to Dicky Gonzalez. My vote would be for Francisco Rodriguez. He's quietly putting together a very solid season and shows up on most, if not all, of the important top 10 boards.
As for the NL, woah. You could pick any of these guys out of a hat and be fine. Johan is having his best season since 2005 and should probably already have 20+ wins on the season. Let's just Chicago's offense isn't helping any. Could this cost him his shot at his first Cy Young? By the way how does Johan not have any Cy's yet? Josh Beckett is having a career year. If he stays at 1.83 for ERA it'll be the lowest of his career. He should also collect his 2nd 20-win season. CC is currently sitting on a 1.42 ERA. That would tie Kerry Wood's record set in 2006. He also throws 9 innings 59% of the time. Um wut? Last, but not least we have the old stalwart, Mark Buehrle. He's actually on pace to beat Wood's record as he comes in with a 1.39 ERA. And if you thought 59% was impressive, how about 67%? All four are deserving, but who will finish out the season strong enough to win?
Looking Ahead:
If we want to take the stance that the pitcher needs to get his team to the playoffs to be eligible then we can eliminate Santana and Beckett. I don't think either of them will be pitching in October and while it may not be fair to eliminate them on this basis we need to start somewhere. So down to Buehrle and Sabathia. Who's going to set the ERA record? I think that's your Cy Young winner.
Winner: CC Sabathia. With the Marlins in a weaker division than Buehrle and the Giants there's just not as many chances to give up 3 runs on a given night. CC shouldn't have a problem with any of the 4 lineups in the East, whereas Buehrle might have a hiccup or two that could nudge his ERA above the record.
Some of the Not-So-Close Races
AL Central: Cleveland Indians - Brewers starting to fade.
AL West: Seattle Mariners - Even with the Mariners shipping talent off the Angels decided to pack it in early this year.
AL Wild Card: Loser of the Rays/Red Sox for AL East - Sorry Brewers, just not good enough.
NL East: Florida Marlins - Can they set the record for most wins in a season?
NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates - As much as I want Reds to win, that offense is horrible.
NL West: San Francisco Giants - Nobody close, time to start lining up the rotation for October.
AL MVP: Matt Holliday - Who else is even in the discussion?
NL MVP: Miguel Cabrera - Can he hit .400?
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