Post by Saitama on Mar 24, 2014 12:31:44 GMT -5
Experience Matters In OOTP
Knowledge of the intricacies of the game are the steroids of OOTP
Broph: not even really a question here for me, Avoiding hits is the more important stat, given the option of Good/Brilliant or Brilliant/Good, give me the guy with Brilliant hin hits...now, that doesnt mean Id take Brilliant Average over Good Brilliant, its better that a pitcher be good across the board than brilliant in one specific area but average somewhere else. (Except doubles and K's I guess...so really just Hits Walks Homers). Look at it this way, would you rather have an A/A/B/G/A pitcher or a B/A/G pitcher...I know who I choose.
Play: Avoiding Hits...I really have no explanation...I just prefer my starting pitchers to have Brilliant hit talents.
Spencer: This question is tricky because its relative. Are we talking BRILL vs FAIR? Or GOOD vs AVERAGE? Ideally Id take BRILL in HITS. Love that. But if that same pitcher has a FAIR in WALKS or HOMERS its kinda pointless. I think HOMERS are easier to go without then WALKS but its still important. If were talking GOOD to AVERAGE then I guess Id rather have GOOD in HITS and AVERAGE in HOMERS. But once again if the pitcher is FAIR in WALKS hes ruined so it doesn't matter. Overall I guess Id say HITS is more important than HOMERS but lots of other things come into play. WALKS, ballpark, duration, GB%.
Break: I definitely could have worded this better. But if I get one Brilliant and the rest good I'm going with Hits of course. But if it's a factor of A/G/G or G/A/G I just prefer A/G/G I think it's because I feel hits are the least likely to PD increase while Homers and Walks.
2. Do you believe in the thought that some players in OOTP inherently underachieve no matter what, or is this all park factors?
Broph: I think in general its just bad luck combined with awful park factors. Konerko played in a park that was truly atrocious for him (think Righty Homers are like 74 in Detroit, something ridiculously low like that) and it hurt the way he is perceived. Guys are not going to have amazing seasons every year out, a guy with a 6 in hits I would assume should on average end up between .288-.312, but its never going to be that just that range is covered. Quite a few guys will hit below that, and you may see some hit above that, but league ratings are going to depress that average some, so that 6 is probably more like .270-.290 or so for expected. Some guys just catch the bad end of that number year in and year out, but at any given year could get the opposite treatment.
Play: I do think there are some players that will constantly underachieve no matter the circumstances. I also believe that park factors could help out some struggling players. I try to acquire guys that fit into my park factors. I've had a few of those guys underachieve with my team though.
Spencer: I believe some players have down years but most of the time real ratings will come through. Obviously park factors contribute to stats and certain players cant or shouldn't be in certain parks. But I think the main problem is that certain GMs expect too much from players that aren't that god. Some GMs see a 8 AR and assume they'll be slid. But if that 8 AR is a 10 in avoiding hits but a 2 in WALKS then the pitcher is gonna suck. Or if a player is GOOD in HITS and HOMERS but FAIR in DOUBLES the player is probably gonna suck. Most GMs overvalue AR for pitchers and HITS for hitters.
Break: I believe certain players just don't play like their ratings no matter what. It may have to do with the park or just they can't put it together for some unseen reason OOTP hides from us.
3. What advice can you give to teams struggling to rebuild because of PD Hits/Jumping the Gun?
Broph: Basically, you start trying to win when your team no longer allows you to lose. If your team is still losing to the point you are looking at a top 5 pick, its tough to say you can quickly and easily turn it around, unless you have mass call ups, or a huge haul in FA, thats a sure sign your team is a ways off. Dont be afraid to call up your guys when they are ready either, it helps make your team more predictable as to when its finally ready to start winning...counting on 6 or 7 rookies to come in and contribute is very hard to predict, and odds are is going to mean a very inconsistent team, as they are likely still developing. Look at your teams needs, if you have more than 3 or 4 holes, its not going to be a short term build. Figure out what your teams specific weaknesses are (do you lack anybody that hits for power, no contact speed hitters? no real consistent on base guys, a mediocre number 3 pitcher, etc.). More than anything its about patience, you can't be 45-117 one year and expect to win it all the next, odds are you are gonna have to climb through 70-92, then maybe compete for your division. I drafted exactly 0 contributers while rebuilding this team last time, seriously, they all suck...but I made sure I got good players in the rebuild, then dealt off guys as I saw holes I could fill in the roster.
Play: I would tell them to be patient. When I was going through the rebuilding phase, I was always adding talent to my roster. Sometimes you have to overspend to get a player that fits your vision. Board cash is always important. You can turn borderline starters into legit starters with board cash. Also don't be afraid to use board cash on 3 star players or 3.5 star players. I noticed a lot of GMs will only spend money on their stud prospects. I have turned several 3 star and 3.5 star players into valuable trade assets by using board cash.
Spencer: Board cash. Most important part of rebuilding. Obviously board cash is always helpful bit reversing bad PDs and TIAing guys is so important. It gives you way more control over the situation. I rebuilt super quick because I got good PDs, fixed my bad PDs and TIAd guys so they looked better then they were when I got them. As for jumping the gun it is important to wait and make the move when its right. Once I knew I could acquire Werth, Workman, Mills, Weaver, Chavez without giving up my favorite spects i went for it. Then Berkman came up. But I planned out my moves. I lined up several trades and they were all contingent on each other. Once I got all the deals lined up I made my move. To many teams get one big piece but then dont make follow up trades. Be organized and thorough.
Break: I think all of these suggestions are great. I've struggled to be patient and it cost me so I'm definitely going to make an effort to turn it around.
4. Rate how soon you think each of these teams can compete and why:
Broph:
Minnesota Twins
Ehh, this is rough here, he has a ton of talent, but he is still missing the top end contact, and the top end pitching right now. On the other hand, with his assets he has in prospects, thats a problem that could likely be solved in an offseason, and in a weak AL Central, you could see Minnesota competing as soon as next year...his biggest problem really is going to be the abysmal fan support brought about by years of losing, not all Styro obviously, but nonetheless a problem. He should be able to afford a player or 2 in a good FA class though.
Boston Red Sox
Financial Probation possible, which really limits FA prospects, a very weak minors, ehh, its gonna be 3 or so years probably of boredom before you get a chance, Having financial flexibility lets you take on contracts or hand out larger ones when it comes time to win, I gave Orlando Cabrera well over his value when I signed him, but I had enough young talent and cheap contracts that that was not really a big deal, for your team though, there just isnt enough talent to win any time soon
Milwaukee Brewers
I love Steve's top prospects, McGehee for Power, Choo for all around, Meyer is a Brilliant hitting 2B with solid power, and Ellsbury is speed/D in the OF, then he has talented pitchers in Gonzalez, Hayes...the issue is he has no real duration types, which is tough. Add to that that he can barely support a 39 million dollar payroll and its tough for him to gain through FA...Add in that the NL Central is deep, and loaded at the top and he will have a hard time winning soon due to salary. Anybody he trades for has to be cheap, which typically means more valuable, as they are either a prospect or a bargain, and anybody that comes up has to be dealt.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Here is what I dont get, when its clear all your guys die, consistently, why do you continue to hang onto them, and never move for a big time talent thats in his prime? The safest way to guard against prospect deaths is to trade them, they certainly seem to be less susceptible to PDs once they lose prospect status. Gonzalez makes for a stud 3B, Gotay has power and D at 2B or SS, which is really nice, Francoeur is solid, but still needs to develop Homers. Boof is a stud, but outside him, I dont see a depth of pitching you really want to see, though if Harvey comes on board that could be handy. He has a good market to make money in, but his fan interest due to the complete lack of winning is rough, so I cant really say now or next year, its probably still 2 or 3 years away, like it seemingly has been forever
Play:
Minnesota Twins - Styro is the best GM out of the bunch. Minnesota is now a very attractive destination for any free agents. Styro has developed and add so much talent to their team. I could see the Twins start to move towards the winning side this upcoming season and being a major factor in the AL Central in 2008.
Milwaukee Brewers - I feel steve is on the brink of success. I would like to see Steve more proactive with trading and shit. But besides that he has a shitload of talent and a lot of his players are finally becoming major league ready.
Boston Red Sox - Break really fucked up with that Kip Wells trade. I think that pushed his time to compete back 2 more years. I feel the AL East is getting weaker every single season. Erbes will never compete, Greeme is fucking garbage and Jah doesn' make any moves to improve his team. The only team in Break's way is the Blue Jays and they are slowly falling off the map. Game hasn't made a move in years to improve his team.
Arizona Diamondbacks - I don't like that Darell use the "expansion team" as an excuse because its not an acceptable excuse at all anymore. Especially with the way Greeme is building his team and also because they had 2 or 3 years of draft picks before their team even took the field. Also, at times I hate the way Darell tries to rebuild. I don't think you can rebuild just through the draft its not possible. Darell also had some very shitty PD luck but thats why you trade and make moves instead of holding on to prospects sometimes. I remember when I offered him Endy Chavez for his first in the 2003 or 2004 draft and he wouldn't even consider it. Chavez was a young major league ready player. Sometimes its better to take the known instead of betting on the unknown, especially with the way prospects die around here.
Spencer:
Minnesota Twins - This is the best looking team on this list and this is the best GM on this list. So I think this is the team to make noise first. They have lots of young talent. Unfortunately their financials are shit. But I like what Styro does and I think hell add the right way, and soon.
Boston Red Sox - I liked what you did early on in this league but you've really been bad lately. The last year was pointless. You're way too much of a homer. You gave up way too much for Ortiz when you needed way more than just one bat. Go slower this time. Add lots of young talent. Then add vets on the cheap. Don't be a homer!
Milwaukee Brewers - I don't think Steve has the time to compete here. Maybe if he had a bigger market. But as it is now he doesn't have the time or the financials to compete. Sad stuff tbh.
Arizona Diamondbacks Darrel needs more board cash. He needs to be able to fix those bad PDs and TIA guys. He has some talent but until he can maintain his youth with reversals he wont be able to compete.
Break:
Minnesota Twins: Styro is definitely the best GM on the list from his track record in Montreal to how quickly he made a pretty bad team look very promising in Minnesota very quickly.
Boston Red Sox: I definitely jumped the gun on trying to compete and I think that it set me back 2-3 years. I managed to not totally devoid my team of prospects in the firesale but I'd rather have my old set of prospects back. Although Zobrist, Tabata, and Maxwell have all died since so maybe I'd be worse off! I will avoid financial probation barely but I need to shed more salary this offseason. Also I have to stop being a homer for sure haha can't wait until fake players so I can stop caring about names.
Milwaukee Brewers: I think Steve is cursed with being in the toughest division in the league. Pirates and Cubs are always a force but he's got a great foundation and could easily fight with them year in and out soon.
Arizona Diamondbacks: I know from experience Darell would rather sit 15 years and build a crazy farm system then try to make a flurry of trades. He needs to start making more trades in a league like this though.
5. My recent spending spree is a reminder not to rush your rebuild. What point would you tell a team to pull the trigger from rebuild to competition?
Broph: I feel like I answered this one before, but when your team struggles to lose, its probably best to start competing, but more than that, calling up young guys when they are ready so that you can see what kind of production you can expect out of your team with that helps you know exactly where your team stands, and spacing out resignings is nice too.
Play: Its hard to tell, I really don't think the Red Sox rushed it...Break just made some horrible moves. He had a very solid foundation but he refused to TIA some of his young guys and instead of those guys being main pieces in trades they became add-ons into some of his trades. If a team is comfortable with the talent that they have and they feel that they can make a move in their division, by all means go for it. But please remember what Boshandos did. And learn from his mistakes.
Spencer: I think you need to make sure you can get better while also keeping some of your favorite youth. You need to add some lower valued guys that can really play for cheap. You cant just go out and trade for high valued guys because you need depth throughout your system. This isn't like FBB where you only need 3 studs to compete. Here you need 18-20 very good players. So you need to be smart about how much you trade for one guy. And if you do trade a ton for one guy make sure you get other pieces back. Be smart and plan out your rebuild. Stock pile talent that is cheap as well.
Break: Great advice all around. I'm a huge fan of picking through FA and stealing great under 30's with all their camps left for cheap early.
6. What would you rather have in a hitter for Hits/Homers/Walks; G/G/F or G/F/G. Are hitters who are average in hits viable?
Broph: Ehhhhhh, it completely depends on the peripherals, I dont really want either of those guys unless they provide something in the way of Doubles, or speed, or D, or some combination of the sort. G/F/F/F/G/F is useless to me really, as is G/F/F/G/F/F. You can't look at just Hits Homers Walks to evaluate a hitter.
Play: What kind of question is this? I'm pretty sure majority of the GMs would go for the G/G/F easily. It could depend on the park though. A hitter who has average hits better excel in several other areas for me to even consider starting a player like that.
Spencer: Obviously Id always take HOMERS over WALKS. I love OBP and OPS and WALKS come in handy but HOMERS are always better than WALKS. Plus I have a BRILL talent WALk guy that only walks like 90 a year. There are so many BRILL WALK pitchers that really kill walks. Homers are always better.
As for AVERAGE HITS it depends on the rest of their ratings and their speed. They can be viable in the right situation. AS a general rule it seems like the ratins in this league are higher and therefore most AVERAGE HITS guys wont be that great though.
Break: I'm a huge OBP fan and I think it translates well here, so I'd prefer G/F/G if they have a secondary talent like Broph mentioned. Otherwise I'll take G/G/F. Average in hits in this league means at best a .250 average and on average probably .200-.220 these days.
7. Do you believe this league is oversaturated with talent? Where pitchers who are G/G/G/G/G are throwing for over 6.00 ERA's and hitters with 6 in hits hitting .250 all the time?
Broph: Yes, but there are also G/G/G/G/G pitchers who have a 3.19 ERA, Guisasola is a 6 in runs, and 6s basically everywhere. Talent means nothing, its entirely dependent on rating, and a guy like Pavano with a 9 in runs is going to be good regardless. As for hitting, you cant look at that 6 as anything more than what it is in respect to the overall pitching; we know pitching is high in this league, so counting on a guy that should do .288-.311 in the league to actually do that is a mistake. That's why the best teams in the league have a bunch of 7/8 type hitters. There is no real use complaining about the league being oversaturated, you have to adjust your player evaluations accordingly instead if you feel that way. Suddenly that G/G/G/G/G with a 6 rating everywhere isnt so good, and that 6 in hits isnt something you care to count on unless the guy is great everywhere.
Play: The league isn't oversaturated with talent. I feel Erbes doesn't make enough legit hitting prospects at all. Pitching could be considered a little oversaturated but thats about it. I think we
should stop completely with the reliever to starter conversions. Lets take this guy for example bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/Site/p3349.html . I could easily use the #spencersystem and turn him into a starter by the time hes done developing in the minors. So if this guy keeps his talents after erbes edits the draft file, he should be in contention for the #1 pick IMO, especially to a GM who knows how to use the #spencersystem. So now you see why we should get rid of the reliever to starter conversion, especially since we have guys that know how to make duration increase during every ST.
Spencer: I do. I think any league with reversals and TIAs will become over-saturated. Its just part of what we've created. We need to slowly lower draft ratings or limit reversals or TIAs if we want to lower future ratings. Or we need to realize 7 and 8 are the new 6.
Break: I think the league has way too many stud pitchers. We've got 10-15 guys winning 20 a year in each league let alone the whole thing. Bats need to be improved. I think I've counted 1-2 Brilliant in walks in the history of the drafts here. Let's give some guys the nod and make things more even.
8. Is there a secret formula to converting relievers to starters without PD hits? You don't have to tell us.
Broph: I saw somewhere that under 26 and A made it quite likely..Ill typically focus my points only from control and Velocity, 3 from velocity, 2 from control, I never take away points (I also only ever converted one guy to a starter, and he took a PD hit [Antonucci], but I've upped many players stamina using this, and very rarely does it fail me.
Play: #spencersystem
Spencer: I don't know if its a secret but I have good luck with it. If its unknown I guess its kinda a secret and Id rather not lose that small extra I have. I do plan on moving Joe Smith, Alex Torres and Darren ODay to SP. Well see in a couple years how successful I am.
Break: In my somewhat unsuccessful conversions of Neftali and Bard I took 1 point out of everything evenly and 2 out of control, so obviously that's not the way to go.
9. Do you feel like GM's like Nanz and Game are legit with their constant PD luck giving them studs?
Broph: Lets look at Nanz team, He dealt for Jeter, drafted Votto, dealt for Brandon Phillips, Carl Crawford, Rondell White; drafted Swisher in the first, dealt for Ludwick, dealt for Fultz, and drafted Papelbon and Krod. Harden Im not sure on to be honest, but I think he drafted him too. Yes, there were some PDs, but really what, Ross, and maybe Krod are the guys that really had major PDs, he just knows how to take advantage of assets in deals....and tries not to trade unless he is winning it big. As for Game, he started with a ton of talent, and hasnt really screwed that up moreso than PDs. Game has a title, but is yet to prove he can rebuild a team. PD's are random, you cant really expect them to help you, and you cant bitch when they help others.
Play: Is this your way of throwing shots at GAME and Nanz? Why didn't you mention Drowe.
Drowe had just as many good PDs as Nanz and Game....What did he do about it? Thats the difference between a GM like Drowe and GMs like GAME and Nanz, they actually capitalize on their good PDs by trading and improving their team. Nanz is one of the best GMs here. Game is a solid GM but hes sitting on his Blue Jays team right now, which isn't a bad thing because hes winning and there is really no competition in the AL East. I feel Game needs some legit competition, to show if hes really a good GM or not. Game did fuck up by trading Andruw Jones away for scraps...I told him not to do that trade.
Nanz is a great GM when hes not lazy, one of the best around easily. Nanz traded for Rondell White, Derek Jeter, Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick. Nanz has made several moves to improve his team, PDs may have helped him somewhat but we all have benefited from PDs in some way.
Spencer: I think Nanz went out and got some good players. But ya, they both have amazing luck and to a certain degree its unfair, maybe even more unfair than markets. I mean Game didn't do much and he has a dynasty now. He just sat and piled up PDs. Nanz has had incredible luck but IMO hes done much more with his team.
Break: Yup completely blanked on DRowe being one of those guys. He definitely got a lot of luck and he's definitely balked quite a few times in the trade area, whether it's passing on good deals or taking bad ones. I think Nanz is more likely to stay on top than Game is.
10. What advice can you give to teams who are consistently barely missing the playoffs even when they go out and make deals? What is the best position to upgrade even if you feel you don't need to?
Broph: The best position to upgrade is always your weakest position, but it has to make sense asset wise. Sometimes you just have to let your guys continue to develop, but knowing when the best time is to cut the cord is more on gut feeling than anything else. DRowe held onto Helton despite not really being much of a contender, thats how you have to look at it, am I a contender to win it all if I do in fact make the playoffs? and if not, do I have the assets to make that happen. For a team like D-Rowe's he has never really had a dominant pitching staff, in large part due to the fact that he has very low duration pitching in net. You want guys that can eat innings, because having 3 pitchers that can go 8 innings means you need 2 less relievers that can handle a load....plus CGSO's stack up cash wise. Outside that, you have to look at why you arent winning. If you keep missing out, odds are pretty high you are going to see your stats off somewhere, maybe you are weak on Homers, maybe your pitching just isnt good enough, or maybe you have been unlucky
Play: Keep trying? After every choke job by my team in the playoffs, I would always go out and find a way to upgrade my team during the offseason. Sometimes you have to keep trading until you find the right combo of players. Pitching is always the best position to upgrade IMO. Pitching wins titles. All 4 of the elite teams in the league(Chicago, Oakland, Seattle and Florida) Have pretty damn good pitching. You can have 5 brilliant hitters, You can have the best hitter in the league, you can have a team batting average of .290 but at the end of the day a team ERA of 3.48 will not get the job done in the playoffs.
Spencer: I think every spot is important. I like having all my players as good as possible. I like the end of my pen to be good. I like having a 5th SP that I can depend on. I like clutch players. I like consistent players. I think it all adds up to success. I think too many teams ignore their bench or their pen. Its all important. Games are won in the 11th with pinch hits from your backup 2B. Games are lost in the 5th inning when your long man gives up a grand slam.
Break: I feel like upgrading you're rotation is always possible, so that's the best place to look for if you're stumped on what's keeping you back.
