Post by greeme on Feb 9, 2014 9:30:29 GMT -5
Records are made to be broken so I doubt that any record will last forever but some are definitely going to last longer than others. 2005 saw 3 records fall, 2 of them – avg and ob% - thanks to Albert Pujols ridiculously good season and the third was broken by Tampa Bay franchise player Matt Holliday who had 65 doubles.
singles - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab1b.html
Ichiro Suzuki
184 singles in 2004
This one will fall sooner rather than later. Jeter had 183 and Guitierrez had 182 so it is not untouchable by any means. Ichiro did show up thrice in the top 9 so that is impressive but this record won’t stand for long.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 90%
triples - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab3b.html
Ray Durham
16 triples in 2004
Juan Pierre
16 triples in 2001
This record won’t last long either. 11 players have 13+ triples including 5 in the last 3 years. One of the most likely records to be broken short term.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 90%
OPS % - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabops.html
Larry Walker
1.1182 ops% in 1998
OPS% = slg% + ob%. Larry Walker has owned this category and has three of the top 6 ops’s of all time. That said, Pujols is still developing his power stroke and nobody would be surprised if he broke this record in the next few years. In fact, Pujols almost broke the record last year, falling just 0.0174 short of the mark.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 85%
On base % - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabobp.html
Albert Pujols
.4656 ob% in 2005
Pujols barely broke Chipper Jones record from 2000 (.4647). Chipper walked 117 times that year which was almost enough to offset Pujols .404 ba. Lance Berkman wasn’t far off the pace in 2005 either with a .4592 ob%. I don’t see this record lasting as long as the others.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 75%
runs – bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabr.html
Larry Walker
154 runs in 1998
Walker definitely can make a case for the best all time player. He is the only player ever to top 150 runs scored in a season. His 154 runs is only 6 ahead of Tim Raines 148 so the record is definitely not out of reach. Won’t be easy but the right leadoff hitter with the right lineup could break it.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 65%
doubles - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab2b.html
Matt Holliday
65 doubles in 2005
Big Daddy!!! 65 doubles is pretty awesome but considering 8 players have gotten 60+ it is definitely doable. Holliday himself is just hitting his prime and his best years are ahead of him. Holliday has the best chance of breaking this record in the short term.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 55%
sbs - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabsb.html
Eric Young
106 sbs in 1998
Ichiro dominated this category and is in 2nd-5th places but even his best year fell 1 steal short of eric young’s record. It won’t be easy to break this record. You need a player that gets on a lot and has a green light to steal at will. Don’t forget that the green light comes at a price many gms are not willing to pay. When Ichiro stole 105 he also got caught 46 times.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 50%
hits - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabh.html
Reggie Jefferson
246 hits in 1997
This is a tough one to break. You have to stay in the lineup, not take a ton of walks and have a great ba. Pujols hit .404 and still came up 11 hits short. Only Derek Jeter came within 10 hits of Jefferson and that was back in 1997 with 236 hits. The pitching seems to have gotten better in the league, which will make this an even harder record to break.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 40%
Batting average - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabavg.html
Albert Pujols
.4045 ba in 2005
Pujols is only 25 so he still has as good a chance as anybody else to break this record. On the other hand it was 80 points higher than his second best batting average. Nobody else has even broken the .390 mark and only Mark Grace broke the .380 mark (.387 in 1997). Add that to the improvement in pitching and this record seems pretty safe.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 35%
Total bases - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab1b.html
Ken Griffey Jr.
408 tbs in 2001
This is another tough one. You really have to have 40-45 homer power to apply. Also have to hit .300. Not a lot of guys like that around. Pujols’ magical 2005 left him 50 bases short, ichiro’s singles record didn’t get him in the top 100 and Jefferson’s 246 hits , including 50+ doubles, couldn’t crack the top 20. The best bets to approach this record are Pujols and Holliday.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 25%
rbis - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabrbi.html
Frank Thomas
168 rbis in 1999
12 players have reached the 140 rbi mark but none after 2000. This would seem to be a function, at least partially, of better pitching and better ballparks for pitchers and until the pendulum swings back in favor of batters it won’t be easy to break this mark.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 20%
XR - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabxr.html
Larry Walker
159.79 xr in 1999
XR – Extrapolated Runs = (.50 × 1B) + (.72 × 2B) + (1.04 × 3B) + (1.44 × HR) + (.34 × (HP+TBB−IBB)) + (.25 × IBB)+ (.18 × SB) + (−.32 × CS) + (−.090 × (AB − H − K)) + (−.098 x K)+ (−.37 × GIDP) + (.37 x SF) + (.04 × SH)
Ow, my head hurts from reading through that formula. In any case, Walker dominates this category even more than OPS%, with the top 3 all time scores. It is possible that the game will never see a power/speed guy like walker again. He would be a lock to get into the Hall if he would ever retire. I don’t even see Pujols touching this record anytime soon, well maybe if he gets trade to Coors.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 15%
walks - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabbb.html
Jim Thome
157 walks in 1996
The only record that has been around since 1996 and probably will be one of the last ones standing. Bonds 2nd place finish was 14 walks behind Thome and Mcgwire’s 3rd place finish was 27 walks behind Thome’s record. Another reason to think this record will be around for a long time is that the highest total in the last 2 years has only been 91 walks.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 3%
homers - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabhr.html
Ken Griffey Jr.
64 hrs in 2001
One of the hardest records to beat. 2nd place behind Griffey is also Griffey with 56. Third place is Man Ram with 52. The difference between 52 and 64 is a humongous difference and Manny is on the downside of his career. Patterson had 46 last year and is the best bet to break the record anytime soon but he is definitely a longshot.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 2%
Slugging % - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabslg.html
Ken Griffey Jr.
.7260 slg% in 2001
One of the more unbreakable records imo. The difference between Griffey’s .7260 and second place Mike Piazza’s slg% (.6577) was the same as the difference between Piazza and 31st place on the list, Juan Gonzalez. 2001 was the same year that Griffey set another close to unbreakable record with 64 home runs.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 0.5%
singles - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab1b.html
Ichiro Suzuki
184 singles in 2004
This one will fall sooner rather than later. Jeter had 183 and Guitierrez had 182 so it is not untouchable by any means. Ichiro did show up thrice in the top 9 so that is impressive but this record won’t stand for long.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 90%
triples - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab3b.html
Ray Durham
16 triples in 2004
Juan Pierre
16 triples in 2001
This record won’t last long either. 11 players have 13+ triples including 5 in the last 3 years. One of the most likely records to be broken short term.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 90%
OPS % - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabops.html
Larry Walker
1.1182 ops% in 1998
OPS% = slg% + ob%. Larry Walker has owned this category and has three of the top 6 ops’s of all time. That said, Pujols is still developing his power stroke and nobody would be surprised if he broke this record in the next few years. In fact, Pujols almost broke the record last year, falling just 0.0174 short of the mark.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 85%
On base % - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabobp.html
Albert Pujols
.4656 ob% in 2005
Pujols barely broke Chipper Jones record from 2000 (.4647). Chipper walked 117 times that year which was almost enough to offset Pujols .404 ba. Lance Berkman wasn’t far off the pace in 2005 either with a .4592 ob%. I don’t see this record lasting as long as the others.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 75%
runs – bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabr.html
Larry Walker
154 runs in 1998
Walker definitely can make a case for the best all time player. He is the only player ever to top 150 runs scored in a season. His 154 runs is only 6 ahead of Tim Raines 148 so the record is definitely not out of reach. Won’t be easy but the right leadoff hitter with the right lineup could break it.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 65%
doubles - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab2b.html
Matt Holliday
65 doubles in 2005
Big Daddy!!! 65 doubles is pretty awesome but considering 8 players have gotten 60+ it is definitely doable. Holliday himself is just hitting his prime and his best years are ahead of him. Holliday has the best chance of breaking this record in the short term.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 55%
sbs - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabsb.html
Eric Young
106 sbs in 1998
Ichiro dominated this category and is in 2nd-5th places but even his best year fell 1 steal short of eric young’s record. It won’t be easy to break this record. You need a player that gets on a lot and has a green light to steal at will. Don’t forget that the green light comes at a price many gms are not willing to pay. When Ichiro stole 105 he also got caught 46 times.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 50%
hits - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabh.html
Reggie Jefferson
246 hits in 1997
This is a tough one to break. You have to stay in the lineup, not take a ton of walks and have a great ba. Pujols hit .404 and still came up 11 hits short. Only Derek Jeter came within 10 hits of Jefferson and that was back in 1997 with 236 hits. The pitching seems to have gotten better in the league, which will make this an even harder record to break.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 40%
Batting average - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabavg.html
Albert Pujols
.4045 ba in 2005
Pujols is only 25 so he still has as good a chance as anybody else to break this record. On the other hand it was 80 points higher than his second best batting average. Nobody else has even broken the .390 mark and only Mark Grace broke the .380 mark (.387 in 1997). Add that to the improvement in pitching and this record seems pretty safe.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 35%
Total bases - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seab1b.html
Ken Griffey Jr.
408 tbs in 2001
This is another tough one. You really have to have 40-45 homer power to apply. Also have to hit .300. Not a lot of guys like that around. Pujols’ magical 2005 left him 50 bases short, ichiro’s singles record didn’t get him in the top 100 and Jefferson’s 246 hits , including 50+ doubles, couldn’t crack the top 20. The best bets to approach this record are Pujols and Holliday.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 25%
rbis - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabrbi.html
Frank Thomas
168 rbis in 1999
12 players have reached the 140 rbi mark but none after 2000. This would seem to be a function, at least partially, of better pitching and better ballparks for pitchers and until the pendulum swings back in favor of batters it won’t be easy to break this mark.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 20%
XR - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabxr.html
Larry Walker
159.79 xr in 1999
XR – Extrapolated Runs = (.50 × 1B) + (.72 × 2B) + (1.04 × 3B) + (1.44 × HR) + (.34 × (HP+TBB−IBB)) + (.25 × IBB)+ (.18 × SB) + (−.32 × CS) + (−.090 × (AB − H − K)) + (−.098 x K)+ (−.37 × GIDP) + (.37 x SF) + (.04 × SH)
Ow, my head hurts from reading through that formula. In any case, Walker dominates this category even more than OPS%, with the top 3 all time scores. It is possible that the game will never see a power/speed guy like walker again. He would be a lock to get into the Hall if he would ever retire. I don’t even see Pujols touching this record anytime soon, well maybe if he gets trade to Coors.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 15%
walks - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabbb.html
Jim Thome
157 walks in 1996
The only record that has been around since 1996 and probably will be one of the last ones standing. Bonds 2nd place finish was 14 walks behind Thome and Mcgwire’s 3rd place finish was 27 walks behind Thome’s record. Another reason to think this record will be around for a long time is that the highest total in the last 2 years has only been 91 walks.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 3%
homers - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabhr.html
Ken Griffey Jr.
64 hrs in 2001
One of the hardest records to beat. 2nd place behind Griffey is also Griffey with 56. Third place is Man Ram with 52. The difference between 52 and 64 is a humongous difference and Manny is on the downside of his career. Patterson had 46 last year and is the best bet to break the record anytime soon but he is definitely a longshot.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 2%
Slugging % - bbs56.net/BBSBL3/BBSBL3/CATO/lboards/seabslg.html
Ken Griffey Jr.
.7260 slg% in 2001
One of the more unbreakable records imo. The difference between Griffey’s .7260 and second place Mike Piazza’s slg% (.6577) was the same as the difference between Piazza and 31st place on the list, Juan Gonzalez. 2001 was the same year that Griffey set another close to unbreakable record with 64 home runs.
Odds the record will be broken within 10 years – 0.5%
