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Post by Erbes on Aug 21, 2013 21:28:55 GMT -5
Bros need some help. I have the 5th pick. Megatron and Beast Mode as keepers. 2 of the 4 guys in front of me have QB keepers. Who am I taking...?
Tom Brady, NE QB PBreaking Video FA
@buf
Sun 1:00
Brady just keeps breaking the rules. Top fantasy QBs aren't supposed to rank 19th among NFL signal callers in average yards at the catch. They aren't supposed to rank 23rd in completion percentage on throws of more than 20 yards. And they aren't supposed to achieve excellence without an above-average outside receiver. But in '12, Brady kept doing all those things. He might have the fastest release in the NFL, and his production inside the numbers (17 TDs, 5 INTs and 3,017 yards in '12) is almost unmatched. Sure, he'll be 36 in August. But this rule-breaker shows no signs of slowing down; if anyone can overcome the loss of as many offensive weapons as the Patriots could be missing in Week 1, it's him.
Tue, Jul 16
394.3
Matt Ryan, Atl QB FA
@no
Sun 1:00
You might think the key to Ryan's leap forward last year was aggressive play calling. Wrong. In '12, he basically threw the same number of passes that traveled more than 10 yards in the air as he did in '11. Was he more efficient throwing it deep? Maybe a bit. But the reason Ryan's production skyrocketed was a better short game. Coordinator Dirk Koetter brought diverse screen plays to Atlanta; on passes behind the line of scrimmage, the team had 66 more completions and 559 more yards than in '11. Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers and Julio Jones will be the beneficiaries of this high-efficiency work, and they should help keep Ryan among the NFL's yardage elites again in '13.
Mon, May 13
380.4
Cam Newton, Car QB FA
Sea
Sun 1:00
Newton's numbers decreased in '12, but he made progress. He was a better intermediate thrower, and made fewer passing mistakes. But if you're drafting the big guy to be your fantasy starter, you care less about his passing and more about those juicy rushing yards and TDs. You won't be disappointed. Now, Newton was actually more effective in the season's second half, when the Panthers deemphasized read-option runs. Yet Cam still was solid with his legs from Week 9 forward, averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game from rushing alone. And the great thing about Newton is he comes with fewer health worries than your typical running QB, because of his size. Without fail, he should deliver 600-plus rush yards and eight-plus rush TDs.
Mon, May 13
363.8
Tony Romo, Dal QBRecent News FA
NYG
Sun 8:30
In prototypical "Tony Romo" fashion, Romo ended his breakout '12 season -- during which he crushed his career best passing total by 420 yards -- with a choking-dog performance to ruin the Cowboys' playoff hopes. His street cred will always suffer because he comes up so small in big moments, but the fact remains that Romo has been a top-eight fantasy QB three of the past four years. He doesn't have a huge arm and he'll hurt you with a multi-INT game now and again, but he's a brave dude, standing in and taking shots to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, two of the league's more dynamic playmakers. If you wait to draft your signal caller, you could do worse than winding up with Romo.
Mon, May 13
344.2
Andrew Luck, Ind QBRecent News FA
Oak
Sun 1:00
Luck finished his rookie campaign as fantasy's No. 9 QB. So why don't we project him for a bump as he climbs the learning curve? It comes down to offensive system. Downfield devotee Bruce Arians is gone, and new coordinator Pep Hamilton (Luck's college coordinator) is a West Coast man. We imagine Luck's efficiency may improve -- his completion percentage should go up and his interception total should go down -- but he's unlikely to lead the NFL in attempts that travel more than 20 yards in the air again. In turn, that probably means Luck is unlikely to finish seventh in passing yards again. He's a fantasy starter with upside, but a less-swashbuckling version of Luck may offer lower highs with his higher lows.
Mon, May 13
333.3
Russell Wilson, Sea QB FA
@car
Sun 1:00
Wilson has sleeper appeal, but losing Percy Harvin to a serious hip injury creates enough concern that we're not quite biting yet. Without Harvin, the Seahawks offense looks the same as '12. Hey, Wilson was a nice rookie surprise, but despite starting all 16 games, he tied for 25th in pass attempts and threw for only 3,118 yards; only Christian Ponder had fewer among QBs who played the entire season. Of course, Wilson's rushing isn't going anywhere: His 489 yards were third-best among QBs. In a more air-based offense, we'd be all aboard the Wilson hype train. But with relatively few passes called in the Pacific Northwest and the same cast of characters around Wilson, we're still waiting at the station.
Wed, Jul 31
332.6
Arian Foster, Hou RB PBreaking News FA
@sd
Mon 10:15
Worry-warts look at Foster's declining per-carry average over the past three seasons -- from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1 -- and fret that even at age 26, heavy workloads are catching up with him. And indeed, his 1,115 offensive touches from '10 to '12 are the NFL's most. However, we look at Foster's touchdowns and feel fine. He's scored 47 times in that span, eight more than any other player. We'll agree that the Texans' offensive line took a step back in '12 and the team's lack of a diverse passing attack hurts Foster. But he's the game's best runner inside the 5, and Ben Tate barely threatened his workload in '12. Foster is as good a combination of high upside and safety as you'll find.
Mon, May 13
306
A.J. Green, Cin WR PRecent News FA
@chi
Sun 1:00
Nothing is missing from Green's game. You want a guy to make a big play? Green produced 12 gains of 25-plus yards last year and was top 10 in yards after the catch. You want a guy to make a first down? Green had 61 of them. You want an end-zone threat? Green had 19 end-zone targets, and caught seven of those for scores. If he has a limitation, it's the guy throwing him the ball: Andy Dalton's arm strength is average, and that shows in his poor deep-completion rate. But the Bengals do a great job of making Green a focal point of their offense. We can't imagine him failing to post a top-five WR fantasy season.
Mon, May 13
293.4
Eli Manning, NYG QBRecent News FA
@dal
Sun 8:30
Eli turned in another maddening campaign in '12 because, well, that's what he does. As usual, his highs were tremendous: A 510-yard game in Week 2, five TD passes in Week 17. But his lows were crushing: No TDs and 177 pass yards per game from Weeks 8 to 10. Manning has ridden the weekly roller coaster for his entire career. It didn't help last year that Hakeem Nicks and Martellus Bennett couldn't stay healthy and the Giants scuffled to find an acceptable complements for Victor Cruz. But Eli is as hot-and-cold as they come regardless of who's catching the ball, and his 59.9 percent completion rate was the lowest for a defending Super Bowl champion QB since '06. We don't trust him as a fantasy starter.
Mon, May 13
282.5
Andre Johnson, Hou WRRecent News FA
@sd
Mon 10:15
After two straight injury-frustrated seasons, AJ put together a complete 16-game campaign in '12, and finished second in the NFL in receiving yards and fourth in receptions. But because the Texans are so run-oriented in the red zone, because Matt Schaub often looks like a game manager, and because there aren't proven weapons opposite Johnson, the big WR only managed four touchdowns. Yes, TDs can be fickle, and it wouldn't be a shock if the huge, immensely talented Johnson launched himself up into the nine-score range again in '13. But with Arian Foster around to convert so many close-in TDs, there's a pretty good chance that doesn't happen. That and AJ's checkered injury past are reasons not to reach.
Mon, May 13
280.2
Matt Schaub, Hou QBRecent News FA
@sd
Mon 10:15
Can you believe that Matt Schaub once threw for 4,770 yards in a season? That was only four years ago, but it seems like an eternity. Since then, the Texans have run it a ton, especially near the end zone: Inside an opponent's 10 last year, Houston called 50 rush plays (second-most in the NFL) compared to 24 passes (18th-most). Schaub threw only six TDs in his final eight contests, but even to that point he'd produced just two above-average games. Andre Johnson is tremendous but rookie DeAndre Hopkins is unproven on the opposite side. Present-day Schaub looks like a game manager.
Mon, May 13
277.3
Trent Richardson, Cle RB FA
Mia
Sun 1:00
The only thing we don't love about Richardson's game is that there's so much of it. He does everything. He bangs, he breaks away, he catches it. He doesn't come off the field. T-Rich had 16 or more touches in 12 of his 15 games last season; unfortunately, that workload intensity led to injuries. Richardson had knee surgery in August, broke ribs in Week 6, and missed the season finale with an ankle problem. Considering he plays behind a decidedly non-elite line with a decidedly non-elite QB, the weight of Cleveland's offense rests on his broad shoulders. And T-Rich can hack it. After just one season, he's already one of the league's best pass-catching RBs and goal-line runners. Now he just needs to stay healthy.
Mon, May 13
274.5
Roddy White, Atl WR PRecent News FA
@no
Sun 1:00
White isn't slowing down. In '12, he had more targets, catches and receiving yards than Julio Jones, plus had 19 targets that traveled more than 20 yards in the air, compared with 22 for Jones. But on game film you see what defenses fear most, and the truth is that defenses fear Jones more than White. That's why despite Roddy's incredible five-year run as a top-10 fantasy WR, we rank Jones higher for '13. As scary as White is in the open field, Jones is scarier. As deadly as White is in the red zone, Jones is deadlier. There's enough aerial work in Atlanta for each of these guys to have great seasons. We just like Jones a little better.
Mon, May 13
272
Carson Palmer, Ari QB FA
@stl
Sun 4:25
Palmer will never be the player he was from '05 to '07. His arm has never fully bounced back from a serious '08 elbow injury, he holds the football too long and takes too many shots, and his decision making is now perennially suspect. He moves from Oakland to Arizona, where at least he's got a potential Hall-of-Fame WR in Larry Fitzgerald. But he'll play behind an O-line that's inexperienced at best, and new head coach Bruce Arians will almost certainly wish he could have the six-years-ago version of Palmer's throwing arm. Expect interceptions and inconsistency.
Fri, May 31
271.5
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB PBreaking News FA
Ten
Sun 1:00
Big Ben's toughness is unquestioned, but it keeps getting the Steelers in trouble. For the second straight year, Roethlisberger missed crucial time to injury during a playoff push, victimized by a shaky O-line and his tendency to hold the ball. Before his Week 10 shoulder and rib woes, however, he was on pace for 4,406 passing yards, 32 TDs, eight INTs and a 67 percent completion rate. Coordinator Todd Haley's quick-release, inside-the-numbers attack suited Big Ben fine. The concern for '13 is continued upheaval in Roethlisberger's blocking, and the removal of playmakers Mike Wallace (free agency) and Heath Miller (torn ACL) from Pittsburgh's attack. Add the likelihood he'll miss games because of injury, and Roethlisberger looks more like a fantasy backup than a starter.
Fri, May 31
271.1
Philip Rivers, SD QB FA
Hou
Mon 10:15
Rivers became an object of nostalgia and pity in '12. Remember when his arm had life in it? Remember when he had legitimate wideouts and an offensive line that seemed to care? Remember when the Chargers had a strong complementary running game? None of these things is true any longer, and Rivers seems a husk of his former self. Once one of the league's most prolific deep-ball purveyors, he's now a chuck-and-ducker, perpetually slow to deliver out-routes and a constant threat to commit a turnover. The real problem appears to be Rivers' shoulder. For two years running, it's looked cooked.
Mon, May 13
268.9
LeSean McCoy, Phi RB FA
@wsh
Mon 7:00
Even before his Week 10 concussion, Shady was on his way to a pretty shady year. He'd produced just five TDs and averaged only 98.5 yards from scrimmage per game, a season after producing 20 scores and averaging 108.3 yards. When he returned, things were even worse, as Bryce Brown had burst on the backfield scene. But Chip Kelly's advent to Philly is good news for McCoy and Brown. The Eagles will play fast and spread defenses out, but they'll run a lot and get Shady the ball in space. Questions about Michael Vick and the offensive line are valid, plus that 20-TD season was always a bit of a fluke. But under Kelly, McCoy's workload will stay strong enough to keep among fantasy starters.
Mon, May 13
267.9
Josh Freeman, TB QBRecent News FA
@nyj
Sun 1:00
Freeman finished 13th among fantasy QBs in '12, but don't be fooled. Last season, the average QB produced 14.7 fantasy points per game. Freeman finished below that mark a whopping eight times The film doesn't lie: While he's got a pedal-down mentality we like, Freeman misreads defenses and gets his body in suboptimal throwing positions, factors that contributed to a Sanchez-like 54.8 percent completion rate in '12 and an NFL-worst 39 picks over the past two years. In Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin and Mike Williams, Freeman has the weapons, and he's physically capable of making any throw. But he also has a tendency to spiral down the rabbit hole when things go poorly. Tampa's offense could go places. We're just not sure Freeman is the guy to lead it.
Mon, May 13
267.7
Seahawks D/ST D/ST FA
@car
Sun 1:00
How do you improve a defense that allowed the fewest points per game and the fourth lowest total yardage? Bring in defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. With those new additions teamed with a recovering Chris Clemons (11.5 sacks, but a torn ACL) and surprise stud Bruce Irvin (although he'll be suspended for the season's first four weeks), Seattle could see a jump in sacks. And let's not forget the secondary. Richard Sherman's eight picks and shutdown corner play was supported by Earl Thomas, Brandon Browner and Kam Chancellor's excellent coverage.
Mon, Aug 5
267
Andy Dalton, Cin QBRecent News FA
@chi
Sun 1:00
Dalton began '12 with three 300-yard passing games in his first six starts, but had zero thereafter. Even worse, over the Bengals' final five meaningful contests including the playoffs, Dalton averaged 158 yards passing and racked up six TDs and six INTs. Throwing to A.J. Green cures some ills, but Cincy knows how poor a passer Dalton is going down the field (a 26.3 completion percentage when his attempts travel more than 20 yards in the air, 30th-best in '12), and must manage him to be successful. In an embarrassing playoff loss to Houston, you saw every wart Dalton has: He can be jittery in the pocket, he misses open men, and he throws bad picks. Expect middling numbers in '13.
Mon, May 13
258.9
Joe Flacco, Bal QB FA
@den
Thu 8:30
Despite his Super Bowl win, Flacco is an easy whipping boy. He's never been a top-10 fantasy QB. He's never eclipsed 25 passing TDs or come close to 4,000 yards. And on tape, you've seen him look unbeatable one series and clueless the next. But it's fair to wonder if a new era is coming for Flacco and the entire Ravens offense, out from under the incompetent thumb of former coordinator Cam Cameron. In six meaningful games without Cameron last year, Flacco averaged 283 yards passing and slung 15 TDs and 1 INT. Now, maybe that's an Eli-esque bout of unconsciousness which will fade. But maybe Flacco's giant arm and aggressive offensive mindset have taken a permanent step forward. He's not your fantasy starter, but he's intriguing.
Mon, May 13
258.3
Sam Bradford, StL QBRecent News FA
Ari
Sun 4:25
Bradford has size, an above-average arm, good athleticism and moxie. But for three straight years he's been surrounded by awful blocking and inadequate receiving that's doomed him. Can that all change in a single offseason? Well, maybe. Jake Long will guard Bradford's left side, and Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and maybe Stedman Bailey should bolster the receiving corps. But Bradford has been sacked 71 times in his past 26 games, and will go into '13 with an unproven backfield, as Steven Jackson has moved to Atlanta. Plus while much hype is given to the fact that '13 will be Bradford's first in the NFL without a coordinator change, we're not big Brian Schottenheimer fans. There's hope, but we're not completely sold.
Mon, May 13
253.2
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WRRecent News FA
@stl
Sun 4:25
Neither injury nor diminished skills explain Fitzgerald's disastrous '12 season, in which he finished 21st in receptions and 35th in receiving yards among WRs. It was all about the QB. Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer combined for a 55.4 percent completion rate, 11 TD passes and 21 INTs. Drafting Fitz this season is a vote that new Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians can solve Arizona's signal-calling mess. Maybe Carson Palmer is the answer; we're not convinced his elbow ever recovered to pre-injury strength, but at least you can be sure he and Arians will combine to take shots. Anyway, we're buying low in Fitz: He's way too physically gifted and mentally tough not to bounce back.
Mon, May 13
246.6
Reggie Wayne, Ind WR FA
Oak
Sun 1:00
Last year, we badly underestimated what Wayne had left in the tank. He wound up third in the NFL in targets, fifth in catches and seventh in receiving yards as Andrew Luck proved ready to rock. But Wayne also fell off in December (in that month, he tied for 23rd in WR receptions) and ceded some production to deep threat T.Y. Hilton. And now Bruce Arians has left Indy, so play-calling duties will fall to West-Coast-offense devotee Pep Hamilton. We won't repeat our '12 mistake and proclaim Wayne cooked. But it's a mistake to call him bulletproof at age 34. Expect a lesser season in '13, but expect enough production to keep Wayne steadily in your lineup.
Mon, May 13
245
49ers D/ST D/ST FA
GB
Sun 4:25
This San Francisco defense is mean. They may have ranked outside the top 10 in picks and fumble recoveries last year, but they ranked inside the top four in rushing yards and passing yards allowed and were second in fewest points allowed. The Brothers Smith (Justin and Aldon) are ferocious coming off the edges, and Navorro Bowman recorded 149 tackles in '12. Losing Dashon Goldson might hurt, but the Niners have high hopes for rookie strong safety Eric Reid, a first-rounder this April. Jim Harbaugh and Vic Fangio have built a winning defense by the Bay.
Mon, May 13
245
Vincent Jackson, TB WR FA
@nyj
Sun 1:00
Jackson is that rare case of a huge-dollar unrestricted free-agent signing who works out. The Bucs gave him $26 million guaranteed and he caught a career-high 69 passes for a career-best 1,334 yards. Thanks to Josh Freeman's big (if scattershot) right arm and coordinator Mike Sullivan's penchant for deep shots, Jackson led the NFL in average yards at the catch, a stat he routinely dominated in his best years with the Chargers. And despite the long routes he runs, Jackson had only three drops on 141 targets. Freeman enters a make-or-break year in '13, where he badly needs to clean up his throwing mechanics and decision-making. Jackson will continue to be the key deep threat in Freeman's development project.
Mon, May 13
244.4
Rob Gronkowski*, NE TE ORecent News FA
@buf
Sun 1:00
The Gronk is open even when he's covered. He might be the most lethal red-zone weapon in NFL history; he has 29 red-zone TDs over the past three years, nine more than any other player. And despite the fact that he missed most of 2012's final six games, he still finished second in fantasy points among TEs. The downside? He does get hurt: He was hobbled in Super Bowl XLVI with a high-ankle sprain, and he broke his arm last year. That most recent injury has caused problems this offseason, requiring additional surgery that may put training camp or even regular-season games in jeopardy for Gronk. Make sure you check on his health before you draft him.
Mon, May 13
243.8
Jay Cutler, Chi QB FA
Cin
Sun 1:00
13 will be Cutler's fifth season in Chicago, and it will be the fifth straight year the Bears will try to convince you they've figured the formula for a great passing game. Don't believe it. New coach Marc Trestman has an NFL pedigree for creating efficient, short-passing offenses with athletic QBs, and Brandon Marshall is coming off a terrific season. Cutler's sour on-field demeanor notwithstanding, we think the guy is talented. But no offense can function when the quarterback doesn't trust his blocking. We've been told the Bears have fixed this problem year after year, and they haven't. Until further notice, Cutler and his 148 sacks the past four seasons (third-most in the NFL) belong out of your fantasy starting lineup.
Mon, May 13
242.8
Ryan Tannehill, Mia QBRecent News FA
@cle
Sun 1:00
The numbers look awful. Tannehill passed for 12 TDs and 13 INTs in his rookie year, but the fact that he started 15 games is in itself a victory. Remember, this kid was a converted WR who had 19 college starts at QB. The Dolphins see poise and talent in Tannehill, and the mockery they endured for taking him No. 8 overall in '12 has quieted. Miami is in "go for it mode," and the addition of Mike Wallace helps what was the NFL's worst receiving corps. For now he's dynasty-league material, but Tannehill has brought hope to South Beach.
Mon, May 13
242.5
Steven Jackson, Atl RB FA
@no
Sun 1:00
We've heard the skeptics. Jackson has been a lukewarm fantasy option for years and turns 30 in July. But we love this fit. Jackson has been held hostage by a terrible Rams offense that's seen him get 43 carries inside an opponent's 10 over the past three years combined. Michael Turner had 102 in that same span! Suddenly the TD-thirsty Jackson will be swimming in chances. Plus his terrific hands will bolster an offense that greatly enhanced its screen game in '12, and unlike Turner, he'll stay on the field for many third downs. Sure, young Jacquizz Rodgers will see plenty of action. But Jackson doesn't need a 300-touch workload to produce. Give him Turner's 241 touches from last year, and Jackson will score double-digit TDs.
Mon, May 13
239.7
Darren Sproles, NO RBRecent News FA
Atl
Sun 1:00
Sproles is the most dangerous receiving RB in the NFL: During his time in New Orleans, he's caught 5.6 passes for 47.5 yards per game with 14 receiving TDs, all easily NFL highs among RBs. An utter beast in PPR leagues, Sproles deserves to be well regarded in standard leagues, too, because no matter whether Mark Ingram or Pierre Thomas gets handed the rock, there's always a place in the game plan for Sproles' catches. In 18 of 28 games with the Saints, he's finished with double-digit fantasy points. That kind of week-to-week safety is tough to find among RBs. With Sean Payton returning in '13, Sproles will continue to be devastating in the passing game.
Mon, May 13
237.9
Matt Forte, Chi RB FA
Cin
Sun 1:00
There's no other way to say it: Durability is becoming an issue for Forte. He's missed six games over the past two seasons, and has been questionable for many more, leaving his fantasy owners scrambling to make lineup changes. When he's in there, Forte is a fantastic combination of size and shiftiness; for a 6-foot-2, 218-pound human, he sure can dance and leave lingerie on the deck. He's also an elite pass receiver. Unfortunately, his ankles and knees always seem like they're hurt, and five seasons in Chicago have proven that Forte doesn't have good instincts when it comes to goal-line rushing, which is why Michael Bush is in town. Forte's raw ability should probably see him ranked higher than this, but we're wary.
Mon, May 13
235.1
Michael Vick, Phi QBBreaking News FA
@wsh
Mon 7:00
New Eagles coach Chip Kelly wants a mobile athlete at QB, so the Eagles renegotiated with the frustrating Vick and brought him back. Expect this new offense to go fast and emphasize the read-option, which in theory means Vick could get back to some elite rushing numbers. But does anyone believe a 33-year-old Vick, who hasn't missed fewer than three games due to injury in any of his four years in Philly, can survive the pounding such an offense will generate? Add an O-line with some question marks (the Eagles allowed the league's fifth-most sacks in '12, but return some injured blockers), and you know how this movie ends. Vick will make some exciting plays, and then wind up holding a clipboard.
Fri, May 31
234.7
Alfred Morris, Wsh RBBreaking News FA
Phi
Mon 7:00
As a sixth-round rookie out of Florida Atlantic, Morris made Mike Shanahan forget about his usual indecisive backfield ways. Morris was the man from Week 1 forward, getting 28 carries in the opener and never looking back. The real question is: Why don't we like him more than this? After all, he was fantasy's No. 5 RB in his rookie campaign while flashing tremendous feet, vision and patience. Our hesitation comes from how little Morris gives Washington in their passing game, and a worry that the offense will be restricted to begin the year if Robert Griffin III isn't his usual scrambling self. Yards should be there for Morris, but there's a chance TDs might not. Still, he deserves to be at least a top-20 fantasy pick.
Fri, Jul 26
233.8
Marques Colston, NO WR QBreaking News FA
Atl
Sun 1:00
As the seasons have gone by, Colston has slowed down. But the effects of his many leg injuries and his 30 years on planet Earth are lessened by the fact that he annually runs more than half his routes from the slot. This often makes him a glorified tight end in the Saints' offense, while the younger, spryer Jimmy Graham actually plays further down the field. It works. Every year he hasn't missed significant playing time, Colston has finished between 8th and 18th among fantasy WRs. There's no reason that can't continue as long as Drew Brees is slinging it. While Colston's ceiling is lower than many of the WRs ranked around him, his week-to-week safety is worth a lot.
Mon, May 13
227.5
James Jones, GB WR FA
@sf
Sun 4:25
Coming into '12, Jones had a well-earned reputation for terrible hands, but dropped only three passes on 64 grabs while catching an NFL-best 14 TDs. Part of that success can be explained by injuries: Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson missed significant time, but give Jones credit. He was a red-zone monster, with 19 targets and 11 of his TDs coming from inside an opponent's 20. We're skeptical the TD total will recur; after all, Nelson himself had 15 TDs in '11 and followed that up with "only" seven last year. But Jones is still an important target in Green Bay's scintillating offense, especially considering Nelson needed a knee scope this summer. These two outside WRs could jockey for primacy all season.
Tue, Aug 6
226.5
Mike Wallace, Mia WRRecent News WA (Thu)
@cle
Sun 1:00
Wallace is one of the NFL's fastest players but he isn't only a burner: In '12, 64 of his 119 targets traveled 20 yards or fewer in the air. Now that he's signed with the Dolphins, his limitations involve questions about Ryan Tannehill, who had 12 TD passes and 13 INTs in his rookie campaign. The truth is, though, that Tannehill has a strong arm and Joe Philbin will take deep shots, meaning Wallace can win you a fantasy game in any given week. But he can also disappear, as is always the case on a team with a very young signal caller and questionable supplemental aerial weapons like Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson. Mr. Sixty Minutes will be feast-or-famine on South Beach.
Mon, May 13
225.5
Bears D/ST D/ST FA
Cin
Sun 1:00
The '12 Bears wrecking crew D led the league in takeaways (44) and touchdowns scored (10). Tim Jennings' league-high nine picks were complemented by Charles Tillman's league-high 10 forced fumbles, while Julius Peppers' 11.5 sacks kept opposing QBs cowering. There are definitely questions here. Will the departures of Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli slow down this machine? What will the loss of Brian Urlacher mean? Can Devin Hester and the return unit get back on track? Perhaps you'll get fewer big defensive plays out of Chicago in '13, but the personnel is still too good for a major drop-off.
Mon, May 13
224
Tony Gonzalez, Atl TERecent News FA
@no
Sun 1:00
In 2012, at age 36, Gonzo finished second in receptions among TEs and third in targets, yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. And because the Falcons came so close but were denied a trip to the Super Bowl, Gonzalez decided to return for another season after flirting with retirement. Can we guarantee he'll have 93 grabs again, especially with reception-friendly RB Steven Jackson in the fold? We cannot. And his legs are fading fast, as evidenced by his 2.8 yards-after-catch average, 31st among qualified TEs last year. But he's still such a dangerous red-zone target, tying for a TE-high 12 catches and eight TDs inside an opponent's 20, that Gonzo will easily be a starting fantasy TE again in '13.
Mon, May 13
222.6
Jason Witten, Dal TE FA
NYG
Sun 8:30
Throughout his stellar career, Witten has had one strike against him: Touchdowns. He was the NFL's only tight end to exceed 1,000 yards receiving last year and set a single-season record for catches by a TE with 110, playing through a severe spleen injury to begin the year. But he found the end zone just three times. That was the fourth time in the past five seasons he's been at five TDs or fewer, mostly because Tony Romo just doesn't throw it to him much in the end zone. Last season, Witten had five end-zone targets, compared to 13 for league-leading end-zone TE Rob Gronkowski. No question Witten is a consistent fantasy starter. But his lack of scores can be frustrating.
Mon, May 13
221.6
Steve Smith, Car WR FA
Sea
Sun 1:00
Smith will be 34 this season, but he's still among the fastest and most furious WRs in the game. He's always been the exception to a rule about receiver size: Most 5-foot-9, 185-pound wideouts can't get off the line against NFL cornerbacks and need to play from the slot, but in '12 Smith ran just 50 of his 572 routes from inside. Alas, the Panthers haven't had a complementary wideout eclipse 677 yards receiving since '08, which is hard to believe given how much safety help Smith attracts. That can lead to month-long droughts for Smith, especially in a season like last year where TDs were few and far between. Another 1,000-yard campaign is likely. Elite-level production probably isn't.
Mon, May 13
212
Dwayne Bowe, KC WRRecent News FA
@jac
Sun 1:00
Bowe landed a huge deal to stay with the Chiefs; he's now the No. 4 highest-paid WR in the game, behind only Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace. The athletic talent has always been there for Bowe, but we'd like his fantasy prospects better had he landed with a stronger surrounding cast. Certainly new starting QB Alex Smith will look for him a lot. But even on better KC teams, Bowe never eclipsed 1,162 yards receiving, and only topped seven TDs once. Add in questions about post-payday motivation, and we see reason to be concerned Bowe's upside is capped.
Mon, May 13
210.2
Darren McFadden, Oak RB PBreaking Video FA
@ind
Sun 1:00
One of these years, Run-DMC will make it through a season unscathed. It just shouldn't be on your dime, at least not if you have to spend an early-round pick. McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a season and missed nine contests in '11 and '12 combined. In addition, his production was utterly dreadful last year, as he averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored three TDs. New offensive coordinator Greg Olson will scrap the Raiders' zone-read system and change back to a power scheme that's served McFadden well in the past, so there's hope. But Oakland may have the NFL's least-talented roster, and Run-DMC has long since used up the benefit of the doubt. He's not worth a heavy draft-day investment.
Mon, May 13
209.4
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB PRecent News FA
KC
Sun 1:00
It was all going so smoothly for the folks who risked drafting MJD during his contract holdout last summer. Sure enough, there he was: Carrying a full workload for the Jags in Week 1. Alas, by Week 7 he was done for the year with a mid-foot fracture. He should be ready to go for the '13 regular season, entering a contract year at age 27. But Jacksonville is switching to a zone-blocking scheme and signed Justin Forsett this winter; theoretically Forsett is no threat to MJD's job, but he did just spend a year in a zone offense in Houston. All this is to say: While Jones-Drew's upside is unquestioned, his risk factors are high. You could get a steal, or you could get a headache.
Mon, May 13
209
Antonio Brown, Pit WRBreaking News FA
Ten
Sun 1:00
Brown's body type doesn't fit a traditional "No. 1 WR" mold. He's 5-foot-10 and 186 pounds. But in Todd Haley's short-passing Steelers offense, Brown is a pretty strong fit. He's an accomplished route-runner, he's got good hands, and he's lightning-quick after the catch. Mike Wallace left for Miami, which means Brown is the most dangerous receiver at Ben Roethlisberger's disposal. His '12 campaign was disappointing, but remember that Brown was dealing with a high-ankle sprain for much of the year. We're at least optimistic he'll dramatically improve on last season's pedestrian numbers.
Mon, May 13
206.2
Alex Smith, KC QBRecent News FA
@jac
Sun 1:00
All the talk-jockeys and surface-level analyzers yap all day about how Smith was No. 3 in QB rating before he was benched with the 49ers last season, that he's thrown 30 TDs and 10 INTs over the past two seasons, that the Niners went 19-5-1 in his final 25 starts. But watch the tape and you see a dink-and-dunker who needs a road-grading O-line and dominant defense to stay in games. In KC, he'll have neither. Andy Reid will play to Smith's strengths, but it won't add up to good numbers. If he tops 3,000 yards passing, it'll be an achievement.
Fri, May 31
205.3
Brandon Weeden, Cle QBBreaking News FA
Mia
Sun 1:00
If new Browns coach Rob Chudzinski and coordinator Norv Turner could draw up their ideal QB, it would be a big-armed, vertical passer with enough size to take hits and enough accuracy to thread the needle. Weeden has the arm and the size, but he completed 57.4 percent of his throws in '12 and had 17 picks. Most troublesome is his lead-footed lack of athleticism and his propensity to lock onto his first read. The good news is Cleveland's passing offense should look much more exciting this year. The bad news is we're not sold Weeden will take advantage.
Mon, May 13
204.7
Torrey Smith, Bal WR PRecent News FA
@den
Thu 8:30
With Anquan Boldin gone from Baltimore, Smith is in a good situation. What stops us from liking him more is the fact that he's been such an up-and-down WR. Last year, he scored five fantasy points or fewer in eight games, while hitting double digits six times. Maybe that roller coaster occurred because Smith mostly ran higher-risk routes, and maybe his production will normalize now that he's a clear No. 1. Or maybe Joe Flacco is simply the streakiest QB known to mankind, and by definition Smith will struggle to help his fantasy teams week in and week out.
Mon, May 13
203
Eric Decker, Den WRRecent News FA
Bal
Thu 8:30
Decker caught 13 TDs and notched his first 1,000-yard campaign in '12. He's big and fast, and while his hands can be shaky, he's got Peyton Manning throwing him the rock. In short: There was lots to love, right up until the point where the Broncos signed Wes Welker. Certainly, Denver goes three-wide a ton, so it's not like Welker will send Decker to the bench. But there are only so many targets to go around, and if Decker is a good outside WR specimen, Demaryius Thomas is a superlative one. Decker will have moments in '13, but his overall workload figures to diminish.
Mon, May 13
202.3
Jake Locker, Ten QBRecent News FA
@pit
Sun 1:00
Locker almost has everything. He's got a howitzer for a right arm. He's got 4.59 speed. He's big and he's a great athlete. But the one thing he's lacked from college into his first two NFL seasons is accuracy, and it's a killer. At the University of Washington his completion percentage was 53.9 percent. With the Titans, he's posted seasons of 51.5 and 56.4 percent. Even if Kenny Britt can stay healthy and Kendall Wright can break out, we're not convinced Locker can keep enough drives alive, and we're concerned his interception total will be sky high.
Mon, May 13
201.1
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