Post by bigbuhner on Jul 26, 2013 12:41:54 GMT -5
1998 DRAFT TOP TWELVE.... HOW DO THEY RATE NOW?
In this year's retrospective edition, we are going to do much of the same, but a few things different! This year we have expanded the list to the top twelve from the top ten! Further, we are also including a look at players drafted in round two who have burst onto the scene and would now be taken ahead of many of their peers from the 1998 draft!
Again, many of these players have a long way to go, and still show much potential, so for this article we are primarily looking at what they have done thus far in the show, and not speculating on what they could become further down the road.
Enjoy!
THREE TO MOVE OUT OF THE TOP 12:
#3) Tie between 1B Carlos Pena (#6 pick from Cubs) and OF Nelson Cruz (#7 pick from Philly).
These two future big league power hitters have yet to find their respective power strokes in the bigs. Now with the Mets, Pena is getting his first cup of coffee this season, and has thus far responded with a stat line of .234, 2, 51. He has nothing left to prove in AAA, but one has to wonder about his decreasing power over the years, as his AAA HR numbers have went from 16 to 7 to 9. Pena's time is now, but he has disapointed thus far.
The same can be said for Nelson Cruz. In 185 major league at bats, Cruz has hit .195, 3, 15 and only has 6 walks to go with 54 strike outs. The only thing that keeps them from dropping lower is their appearance thus far in the show.
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Both would have enough promise to still be first round picks, but you would find them in the late teens.
#2) Ryan Vogelsong SP (drafted #8 by the Mets)
Vogelsong has since been traded to Atlanta, where nearly every starting pitcher becomes a major league mainstay. Volgelsong has yet to reach the show, and has perhaps already worn out his welcome with one club. His career numbers in AAA show a 8-14 won loss record and a 3.75 ERA. However, most telling might be the 228 hits he has given up in 212 AAA innings pitched. Another top ten draftee who has been overshadowed by many others, some even from round two.
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Much like the two hitting specs above, late teens/early 20's draft talent.
#1) OF Adam Dunn (drafted #3 from Cleveland)
There is quite a bit Cleveland has done right as of recent, but Dunn has done nothing to contribute to that as of yet. No other '98 draftee has fallen as far as Dunn. Currently in AAA, Dunn has seen his numbers drop from his '01 season where he hit .290, 11, 48 to a less respectable '02 season of .247, 6, 21. Granted that is in 60 less at bats, but once he gets those 60, unless he goes on a tear, 2002 will become a lost season for Dunn. He is an important piece of the future in Cleveland, and as a former #3 pick, is light years away from contributing to the major league club.
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Still a first rounder, still could be top ten. He has that much talent, but most likely would fall towards the 20's.
HONORABLE EXCLUSION:
* #11 pick Francisco Rodriguez (Csox drafted, traded to Seattle)
FRod is only 19. You don't expect many 19 year olds to be mainstays in the show this quickly. For that reason, FRod gets a bye. Further, his minor league numbers show steady improvement, and he will more than likely contribute to the Mariners more quickly than the above players.
A: 151 IP/117H A: 45BB/80K
AA: 112 IP/ 82 H AA: 47BB/167K
AAA: 105IP/ 77 H AAA: 60BB/147K
That is solid growth!
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Perhaps not the first bullpen arm off the board, but easily a top twenty pick.
TOP TWELVE PLAYERS OF THE '98 DRAFT:
#12: SP Ryan Rupe, Baltimore
Rupe has vaulted over nearly 40 players to rank in our top twelve. Nobody has moved more than Rupe, and he is hands down the best round 2 player, thus far, to move into round one. Currently helping the Orioles stay in the race, his 12-14 record pales in comparison to his 3.50 ERA and his sterling 33/145 walk to strike out ratio. Rupe has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation and should be a mainstay for years as a solid #4 or even #3 starter in the bigs.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #48 overall (round two)
CURRENT SPOT: #12
MOVEMENT: +36 spots
#11) RP BJ Ryan, Houston
BJ has shown himself to be one of the top relievers to come out of the draft thus far. After scaring away several gm's with his poor control, Ryan has solidified the Houston bullpen with a 3.39 ERA and 7-10 record thus far in his young career. Further, he has only surrendered 41 walks to go with 145 K's. Seems as though he has gotten those control issues in check, and the management in Houston should be given some credit for that development.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #18
CURRENT SPOT: #11
MOVEMENT: +7
#10) SP Mark Buehrle, Montreal
Buerhle has nothing left to show in the minors, having crafted 40+ wins in his short minor league career. Involved in big tradings with big names, Buerhle is holding his own in the majors, going 8-5 with a 4.92 so far with the Expos. Originally drafted by the Tigers, Buerhle still has a way to go to make them regret moving him out of the Motor City. Eventually, he should settle in to a solid #3 starter, but if the Expos want to win the NL East and go far in the playoffs, they may need Buerhle to step up his game. It may be too soon for him, but the future looks bright at this point.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #9 by Detroit
CURRENT SPOT: #10
MOVEMENT: -1
#9) CL Scott Atchison, Kansas City
Talk about a guy that came from nowhere.... Atchison amongst the first players from this draft to hit the show, which he did during the '98 season. That alone gets him mentioned in this listing, but when you look further, you see a solid bullpen arm that has already saved 46 games in his career! That vaults him over all other closers/bullpen arms from this draft. Surprising that Atlanta moved him in trade, but not surprising considering how Atlanta seems to have a knack for finding solid arms in the minors/draft. Atchison has proven that he belongs in the first round of the draft, and has shown top ten stats.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #22 by Atlanta
CURRENT SPOT: #9
MOVEMENT: +13
#8) SP Mark Mulder, Texas
Mulder has been well traveled for a '98 draftee, spending time in both Oakland and Florida before moving to the Rangers. in 2000, Mulder went 7-5 with a 5.04 ERA. This season he has thus far pitched to a tune of 13-8 with a 4.20. He is a big part of Texas hovering around .500 and turning the club around. If he continued to improve from year to year like that, he will settle in as a solid #2 arm and provide Texas with years of top notch pitching. Originally the 2nd starter taken in the draft, he continues to remain the 2nd best starter overall after 3 seasons.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #4 by Oakland
CURRENT SPOT: #8
MOVEMENT: -4
#7) OF Pat Burrell, St. Louis
Pat the bat has bumped around from Chicago to NYY and landed in Cardinal County where he has brought his solid stick to the lineup. After a solid first season as a Yankee where he hit .272, 18, 63, Burrell has bumped up his average to .283, but seen a slight decline in his power numbers, mashing 11 longballs and driving in 41 so far. There is much time left in the season, and if he can keep that average up, he should eclipse those numbers as a Cardinal. He has been oft moved, and he seems primed to show his past clubs that it was a mistake to let him go.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #12 by ChiSox
CURRENT SPOT: #7
MOVEMENT: +5
#6) OF Corey Patterson, St. Louis
Back to back Cardinals who were not drafted by the club. Patterson makes a slight bump over Burrell perhaps not as much for his numbers so far in the majors, but for the fact that the Cardinals moved both Justin Morneau and Grady Sizemore to land him. Much is expected of CPatt now that he is the table setter in St. Louis. He has shown a solid growth pattern in his first two seasons in the majors:
00: .242, 13, 38, 15 (392 AB), .261 OBP
01: .288, 10, 43, 29 (430 AB), .315 OBP
However, a player of his expectations should be getting on base much more, and he has seen that slight decline in his homers. My opinion is I'll take the higher average and increased steals and the OBP growth over a handful of longballs any day.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: 5th by SanDiego
CURRENT SPOT: 6th
MOVEMENT: -1
#5) CL Matt Thornton, Cleveland
Career 58 hits in 94 innings pitched, 10 saves in '00 to 23 so far in '01, huge part of shutting games down for the Tribe, and a 2.15 ERA. If you are going to take a closer so high in the draft, this is the kind of arm you hope to get! The Indians have a good one for years to come, and Thornton is by far the top reliever of the '98 draft.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #19 by Cleveland
CURRENT SPOT: #5
MOVEMENT: +14 spots
#4) OF Matt Holiday, Texas
Holiday is worthy of being a high pick in the draft, but slips a little by a few mid first round picks. He is a career .300 hitter, hits in the vaulted 3 hole for Texas, and in his first season hit .273, 15, 76 with 14 steals. Holiday should be a mainstay for years on end in Texas, but has lost his spot as the former top hitter in the '98 draft.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #2
CURRENT SPOT: #4
MOVEMENT: -2
#3) OF Juan Pierre, New York Mets
The Phillies took a chance on Garry Sheffield to win them a World Series and moved him to Florida. That didn't work. The Marlins moved him in a huge deal that may work out better than that, but the Mets have to be happy with the speedy leadoff bat that should help to set the tables in New York for the next decade. Pierre has already amassed 120 career steals, and has hit .305, 8, 92 in two years in the majors. Drafted just outside of the top twelve, he now finds himself amidst the conversation for the top player overall.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #14 by Philadelphia
CURRENT SPOT: #3
Movement: +11
Before we get to the top 2 drafted players, let's take a look at the top pitcher and hitter to come out of round two who look more like first rounders than many that went there.
We already included #12 overall player Ryan Rupe above, but here are the next two in line who have made their case for a top draftee of 1998.
PITCHER: Scott Proctor, New York Mets
It's easy to see the Mets moving up soon, with several names in this draft report. Proctor had 32 saves in 2000 and a 2.73 ERA. This year he has already saves 16 for the lowly Mets, and his ERA is still a tidy 3.40. He was the 8th overall pick in round 2, and has already made his mark in the majors of much more ballyhood names from the draft.
IF TAKEN TODAY: possible top 20 draft pick.
HITTER: OF Jay Gibbons, Detroit
There were not many hitters of note in round two, but Gibbons made the show in 1999 when he hit .259, 11, 51. Since then he has struggled more, moving to .179, 12, 61 in 2000, and hitting .237, 9, 50 so far this season. Detroit has time to let him develop, but he is going to have to either raise that average or show more power to stick as a starter on any major league club. Still , best 2nd round hitter thus far from the draft.
BACK TO THE TOP TEN!
#2) SP CC Sabathia, Florida
Yup, I don't have CC as my #1, but anybody could argue in his favor. Traded originally from Cincinnati amidst much derision from the commisioner's office, CC has done more in 2 seasons than most starters could dream of. He is a legit ace of the rotation, and has already made an AS team. Posting over 200 k's in each of his two big league seasons, CC holds a career 3.27 ERA and a 34-16 record. He will keep Florida near the top of the NL East for years to come, and is simply a pitching beast.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #1 by Cincy
CURRENT SPOT: #2
MOVEMENT: -1
#1) SS Alfonso Soriano, Montreal
I am one GM who can say "damn why did I pass up Soriano?" Only player of this draft to make two All Star teams, has had 3 solid years in the majors, one more than Sabathia.
99: .284, 26, 79, 21
00: .304, 22, 71, 31
01 .298, 21, 81, 14 and counting!
Everybody saw the potential in speed and power, but nobody thought he would hit so well so soon. Quickly becoming a MVP caliber talent, Soriano is my choice for the best overall player of the 1998 draft.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #10
CURRENT SPOT: #1
MOVEMENT: +9
There you have it! Hope you enjoyed the 1998 Draft Retrospective! Now feel free to discuss, argue, and bash this writer below!
Good day!
In this year's retrospective edition, we are going to do much of the same, but a few things different! This year we have expanded the list to the top twelve from the top ten! Further, we are also including a look at players drafted in round two who have burst onto the scene and would now be taken ahead of many of their peers from the 1998 draft!
Again, many of these players have a long way to go, and still show much potential, so for this article we are primarily looking at what they have done thus far in the show, and not speculating on what they could become further down the road.
Enjoy!
THREE TO MOVE OUT OF THE TOP 12:
#3) Tie between 1B Carlos Pena (#6 pick from Cubs) and OF Nelson Cruz (#7 pick from Philly).
These two future big league power hitters have yet to find their respective power strokes in the bigs. Now with the Mets, Pena is getting his first cup of coffee this season, and has thus far responded with a stat line of .234, 2, 51. He has nothing left to prove in AAA, but one has to wonder about his decreasing power over the years, as his AAA HR numbers have went from 16 to 7 to 9. Pena's time is now, but he has disapointed thus far.
The same can be said for Nelson Cruz. In 185 major league at bats, Cruz has hit .195, 3, 15 and only has 6 walks to go with 54 strike outs. The only thing that keeps them from dropping lower is their appearance thus far in the show.
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Both would have enough promise to still be first round picks, but you would find them in the late teens.
#2) Ryan Vogelsong SP (drafted #8 by the Mets)
Vogelsong has since been traded to Atlanta, where nearly every starting pitcher becomes a major league mainstay. Volgelsong has yet to reach the show, and has perhaps already worn out his welcome with one club. His career numbers in AAA show a 8-14 won loss record and a 3.75 ERA. However, most telling might be the 228 hits he has given up in 212 AAA innings pitched. Another top ten draftee who has been overshadowed by many others, some even from round two.
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Much like the two hitting specs above, late teens/early 20's draft talent.
#1) OF Adam Dunn (drafted #3 from Cleveland)
There is quite a bit Cleveland has done right as of recent, but Dunn has done nothing to contribute to that as of yet. No other '98 draftee has fallen as far as Dunn. Currently in AAA, Dunn has seen his numbers drop from his '01 season where he hit .290, 11, 48 to a less respectable '02 season of .247, 6, 21. Granted that is in 60 less at bats, but once he gets those 60, unless he goes on a tear, 2002 will become a lost season for Dunn. He is an important piece of the future in Cleveland, and as a former #3 pick, is light years away from contributing to the major league club.
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Still a first rounder, still could be top ten. He has that much talent, but most likely would fall towards the 20's.
HONORABLE EXCLUSION:
* #11 pick Francisco Rodriguez (Csox drafted, traded to Seattle)
FRod is only 19. You don't expect many 19 year olds to be mainstays in the show this quickly. For that reason, FRod gets a bye. Further, his minor league numbers show steady improvement, and he will more than likely contribute to the Mariners more quickly than the above players.
A: 151 IP/117H A: 45BB/80K
AA: 112 IP/ 82 H AA: 47BB/167K
AAA: 105IP/ 77 H AAA: 60BB/147K
That is solid growth!
IF DRAFTED TODAY: Perhaps not the first bullpen arm off the board, but easily a top twenty pick.
TOP TWELVE PLAYERS OF THE '98 DRAFT:
#12: SP Ryan Rupe, Baltimore
Rupe has vaulted over nearly 40 players to rank in our top twelve. Nobody has moved more than Rupe, and he is hands down the best round 2 player, thus far, to move into round one. Currently helping the Orioles stay in the race, his 12-14 record pales in comparison to his 3.50 ERA and his sterling 33/145 walk to strike out ratio. Rupe has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation and should be a mainstay for years as a solid #4 or even #3 starter in the bigs.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #48 overall (round two)
CURRENT SPOT: #12
MOVEMENT: +36 spots
#11) RP BJ Ryan, Houston
BJ has shown himself to be one of the top relievers to come out of the draft thus far. After scaring away several gm's with his poor control, Ryan has solidified the Houston bullpen with a 3.39 ERA and 7-10 record thus far in his young career. Further, he has only surrendered 41 walks to go with 145 K's. Seems as though he has gotten those control issues in check, and the management in Houston should be given some credit for that development.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #18
CURRENT SPOT: #11
MOVEMENT: +7
#10) SP Mark Buehrle, Montreal
Buerhle has nothing left to show in the minors, having crafted 40+ wins in his short minor league career. Involved in big tradings with big names, Buerhle is holding his own in the majors, going 8-5 with a 4.92 so far with the Expos. Originally drafted by the Tigers, Buerhle still has a way to go to make them regret moving him out of the Motor City. Eventually, he should settle in to a solid #3 starter, but if the Expos want to win the NL East and go far in the playoffs, they may need Buerhle to step up his game. It may be too soon for him, but the future looks bright at this point.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #9 by Detroit
CURRENT SPOT: #10
MOVEMENT: -1
#9) CL Scott Atchison, Kansas City
Talk about a guy that came from nowhere.... Atchison amongst the first players from this draft to hit the show, which he did during the '98 season. That alone gets him mentioned in this listing, but when you look further, you see a solid bullpen arm that has already saved 46 games in his career! That vaults him over all other closers/bullpen arms from this draft. Surprising that Atlanta moved him in trade, but not surprising considering how Atlanta seems to have a knack for finding solid arms in the minors/draft. Atchison has proven that he belongs in the first round of the draft, and has shown top ten stats.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #22 by Atlanta
CURRENT SPOT: #9
MOVEMENT: +13
#8) SP Mark Mulder, Texas
Mulder has been well traveled for a '98 draftee, spending time in both Oakland and Florida before moving to the Rangers. in 2000, Mulder went 7-5 with a 5.04 ERA. This season he has thus far pitched to a tune of 13-8 with a 4.20. He is a big part of Texas hovering around .500 and turning the club around. If he continued to improve from year to year like that, he will settle in as a solid #2 arm and provide Texas with years of top notch pitching. Originally the 2nd starter taken in the draft, he continues to remain the 2nd best starter overall after 3 seasons.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #4 by Oakland
CURRENT SPOT: #8
MOVEMENT: -4
#7) OF Pat Burrell, St. Louis
Pat the bat has bumped around from Chicago to NYY and landed in Cardinal County where he has brought his solid stick to the lineup. After a solid first season as a Yankee where he hit .272, 18, 63, Burrell has bumped up his average to .283, but seen a slight decline in his power numbers, mashing 11 longballs and driving in 41 so far. There is much time left in the season, and if he can keep that average up, he should eclipse those numbers as a Cardinal. He has been oft moved, and he seems primed to show his past clubs that it was a mistake to let him go.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #12 by ChiSox
CURRENT SPOT: #7
MOVEMENT: +5
#6) OF Corey Patterson, St. Louis
Back to back Cardinals who were not drafted by the club. Patterson makes a slight bump over Burrell perhaps not as much for his numbers so far in the majors, but for the fact that the Cardinals moved both Justin Morneau and Grady Sizemore to land him. Much is expected of CPatt now that he is the table setter in St. Louis. He has shown a solid growth pattern in his first two seasons in the majors:
00: .242, 13, 38, 15 (392 AB), .261 OBP
01: .288, 10, 43, 29 (430 AB), .315 OBP
However, a player of his expectations should be getting on base much more, and he has seen that slight decline in his homers. My opinion is I'll take the higher average and increased steals and the OBP growth over a handful of longballs any day.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: 5th by SanDiego
CURRENT SPOT: 6th
MOVEMENT: -1
#5) CL Matt Thornton, Cleveland
Career 58 hits in 94 innings pitched, 10 saves in '00 to 23 so far in '01, huge part of shutting games down for the Tribe, and a 2.15 ERA. If you are going to take a closer so high in the draft, this is the kind of arm you hope to get! The Indians have a good one for years to come, and Thornton is by far the top reliever of the '98 draft.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #19 by Cleveland
CURRENT SPOT: #5
MOVEMENT: +14 spots
#4) OF Matt Holiday, Texas
Holiday is worthy of being a high pick in the draft, but slips a little by a few mid first round picks. He is a career .300 hitter, hits in the vaulted 3 hole for Texas, and in his first season hit .273, 15, 76 with 14 steals. Holiday should be a mainstay for years on end in Texas, but has lost his spot as the former top hitter in the '98 draft.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #2
CURRENT SPOT: #4
MOVEMENT: -2
#3) OF Juan Pierre, New York Mets
The Phillies took a chance on Garry Sheffield to win them a World Series and moved him to Florida. That didn't work. The Marlins moved him in a huge deal that may work out better than that, but the Mets have to be happy with the speedy leadoff bat that should help to set the tables in New York for the next decade. Pierre has already amassed 120 career steals, and has hit .305, 8, 92 in two years in the majors. Drafted just outside of the top twelve, he now finds himself amidst the conversation for the top player overall.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #14 by Philadelphia
CURRENT SPOT: #3
Movement: +11
Before we get to the top 2 drafted players, let's take a look at the top pitcher and hitter to come out of round two who look more like first rounders than many that went there.
We already included #12 overall player Ryan Rupe above, but here are the next two in line who have made their case for a top draftee of 1998.
PITCHER: Scott Proctor, New York Mets
It's easy to see the Mets moving up soon, with several names in this draft report. Proctor had 32 saves in 2000 and a 2.73 ERA. This year he has already saves 16 for the lowly Mets, and his ERA is still a tidy 3.40. He was the 8th overall pick in round 2, and has already made his mark in the majors of much more ballyhood names from the draft.
IF TAKEN TODAY: possible top 20 draft pick.
HITTER: OF Jay Gibbons, Detroit
There were not many hitters of note in round two, but Gibbons made the show in 1999 when he hit .259, 11, 51. Since then he has struggled more, moving to .179, 12, 61 in 2000, and hitting .237, 9, 50 so far this season. Detroit has time to let him develop, but he is going to have to either raise that average or show more power to stick as a starter on any major league club. Still , best 2nd round hitter thus far from the draft.
BACK TO THE TOP TEN!
#2) SP CC Sabathia, Florida
Yup, I don't have CC as my #1, but anybody could argue in his favor. Traded originally from Cincinnati amidst much derision from the commisioner's office, CC has done more in 2 seasons than most starters could dream of. He is a legit ace of the rotation, and has already made an AS team. Posting over 200 k's in each of his two big league seasons, CC holds a career 3.27 ERA and a 34-16 record. He will keep Florida near the top of the NL East for years to come, and is simply a pitching beast.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #1 by Cincy
CURRENT SPOT: #2
MOVEMENT: -1
#1) SS Alfonso Soriano, Montreal
I am one GM who can say "damn why did I pass up Soriano?" Only player of this draft to make two All Star teams, has had 3 solid years in the majors, one more than Sabathia.
99: .284, 26, 79, 21
00: .304, 22, 71, 31
01 .298, 21, 81, 14 and counting!
Everybody saw the potential in speed and power, but nobody thought he would hit so well so soon. Quickly becoming a MVP caliber talent, Soriano is my choice for the best overall player of the 1998 draft.
ORIGINALLY DRAFTED: #10
CURRENT SPOT: #1
MOVEMENT: +9
There you have it! Hope you enjoyed the 1998 Draft Retrospective! Now feel free to discuss, argue, and bash this writer below!
Good day!
